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How Well Do Alternative Time-Varying Parameter Models of the NAIRU Help Policymakers Forecast Unemployment and Inflation in the OECD Countries?

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Author Info
Laurence Boone
Michel Juillard
Doug Laxton
Papa N'Diaye

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Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 with number 359.

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Date of creation: 01 Jul 2002
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf2:359

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Related research
Keywords: Phillips Curve Unemployment Monetary Policy Fiscal Policy

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Pete Richardson & Laurence Boone & Claude Giorno & Mara Meacci & David Rae & David Turner, 2000. "The Concept, Policy Use and Measurement of Structural Unemployment: Estimating a Time Varying NAIRU Across 21 OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 250, OECD Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  2. Orphanides, Athanasios, 1999. "The Quest for Prosperity Without Inflation," Working Paper Series 93, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Gordon, Robert J, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Ricardo Mestre & Silvia Fabiani, 2000. "Alternative measures of the NAIRU in the Euro area: estimates and assessment," Working Paper Series 17, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Robert J. Gordon, 1999. "Foundations of the Goldilocks Economy: Supply Shocks and the Time-Varying NAIRU," NBER Reprints 2240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Other versions:
  7. Dave Turner & Elena Seghezza, 1999. "Testing for a Common OECD Phillips Curve," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 219, OECD Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  8. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1995. "The Phillips curve is alive and well," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 41-56. [Downloadable!]
  9. David T. Coe & C. John McDermott, 1996. "Does the Gap Model Work in Asia?," IMF Working Papers 96/69, International Monetary Fund.
  10. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1996. "Asymptotically Median Unbiased Estimation of Coefficient Variance in a Time Varying Parameter Model," NBER Technical Working Papers 0201, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1991. "Using noisy indicators to measure potential output," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  12. Thomas Laubach, 1997. "Measuring the NAIRU : evidence from seven economies," Research Working Paper 97-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
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  13. Arturo Estrella & Frederic Mishkin, 1998. "Rethinking the role of NAIRU in monetary policy: implications of model formulation and uncertainty," Research Paper 9806, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Kenneth Kuttner, 1992. "Monetary policy with uncertain estimates of potential output," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Jan, pages 2-15.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Cagri Sarikaya & Fethi Ogunc & Dilara Ece & Hakan Kara & Umit Ozlale, 2005. "Estimating Output Gap for the Turkish Economy," Working Papers 0503, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. [Downloadable!]
  2. Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Sergio Afonso Lago Alves, 2003. "Medium-Size Macroeconomic Model for the Brazilian Economy," Working Papers Series 64, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  3. Eric Heyer & Frederic Reynes & Henri Sterdyniak, 2004. "Variables observables et inobservables dans la theorie du taux de chomage d’equilibre, une comparaison France/Etats-Unis," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2004-03, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
  4. Dora M. Iakova, 2007. "Flattening of the Phillips Curve: Implications for Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 07/76, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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