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Alternative measures of the NAIRU in the Euro area: estimates and assessment

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Author Info
Ricardo Mestre () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, Postfach 16 03 19, 60066 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Silvia Fabiani () (University of Cambridge, Faculty of Economics and Politics, Austin Robinson Building, Sidgwick Avenue, Cambridge CB3 9DD, United Kingdom.)

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Abstract

The paper focuses on the measurement of the NAIRU (Non-Accelerating-Inflation-Rate-of-Unemployment) for the euro area and assesses the usefulness of different methodologies developed in the literature to estimate this unobservable variable at the aggregate level. After reviewing the theoretical framework underlying the most common estimation approaches, it presents several estimates of the area-wide NAIRU based on a number of direct (or statistical) techniques. The latter range from simple univariate filtering approaches to more complex multivariate methods based on Phillips curve relationships. The different estimates of the aggregate NAIRU appear to be consistent and robust with respect to alternative specifications, methodologies and choice of the inflation indicator. They also show significant inflation forecasting ability and are able to produce sensible measures of the output gap, therefore providing some ground to argue that unemployment and the unemployment gap may be a useful variable to analyse short-term economic developments at the euro area level. JEL Classification: E24; E31; C14; C22.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 17.

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Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20000017

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Related research
Keywords: NAIRU; Phillips curve; Kalman filter.;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Rasi, C.M. & Viikari, J.M., 1998. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Potential Output in Finland," Bank of Finland - Studies in Economics and Finance 6/98, Bank of Finland. Research Department..
  2. Robert J. Gordon, 1998. "Foundations of the Goldilocks Economy: Supply Shocks and the Time-Varying NAIRU," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1998-2), pages 297-346. [Downloadable!]
  3. Gordon, Robert J, 1996. "The Time-varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 1492, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Douglas Laxton & Guy Meredith & David Rose, 1994. "Asymmetric Effects of Economic Activity on Inflation - Evidence and Policy Implications," IMF Working Papers 94/139, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Staiger, Douglas & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Arturo Estrella & Frederic Mishkin, 1998. "Rethinking the role of NAIRU in monetary policy: implications of model formulation and uncertainty," Research Paper 9806, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Rasi, Chris-Marie & Viikari, Jan-Markus, 1998. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Potential Output in Finland," Research Discussion Papers 6/1998, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  8. Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1996. "How Precise are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Working Papers 5477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Karl Whelan, 1997. "Wage curve vs. Phillips curve: are there macroeconomic implications?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-51, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  11. Thomas Laubach, 1997. "Measuring the NAIRU : evidence from seven economies," Research Working Paper 97-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    Other versions:
  12. Marvin Goodfriend & Robert King, 1997. "The New Neoclassical Synthesis and the Role of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 231-296 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Carsten Detken & Vincent Brousseau, 2001. "Monetary policy and fears of financial instability," Working Paper Series 089, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Andrea Generale & Ignacio Hernando & Philip Vermeulen & Ulf von Kalckreuth, 2001. "Firm investment and monetary policy transmission in the Euro area," Working Paper Series 112, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Julian Benedict Morgan & Silvia Fabiani, 2003. "Aggregation and euro area Phillips curves," Working Paper Series 213, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Tobias Linzert, 2005. "The Unemployment Inflation Trade-Off in the Euro Area," IZA Discussion Papers 1699, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  5. Alpo Willman, 2002. "Euro area production function and potential output: a supply side system approach," Working Paper Series 153, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Gian Maria Tomat, 2002. "Durable goods; price indexes and quality change: an application to automobile prices in Italy, 1988-1998," Working Paper Series 118, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Beissinger, Thomas, 2004. "Strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa: Eine Bestandsaufnahme," Regensburger Diskussionsbeiträge zur Wirtschaftswissenschaft 389, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Franz, Wolfgang, 2000. "Neues von der NAIRU?," ZEW Discussion Papers 00-41, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  9. Ángel Estrada & Ignacio Hernando & J. David López-Salido, 2000. "Measuring the NAIRU in the Spanish Economy," Banco de España Working Papers 0009, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  10. Eilev S. Jansen, 2004. "Modelling inflation in the Euro Area," Working Paper 2004/10, Norges Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Antonella Palumbo, . "I Metodi Di Stima Del Pil Potenziale Tra Fondamenti Di Teoria Economica E Contenuto Empirico," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0092, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre. [Downloadable!]
  12. Slevin, Geraldine, 2001. "Potential Output and the Output Gap in Ireland," Research Technical Papers 5/RT/01, Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland (CBFSAI). [Downloadable!]
  13. Jan Gottschalk, 2002. "Keynesian and Monetarist Views on the German Unemployment Problem — Theory and Evidence," Kiel Working Papers 1096, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  14. Laurence Boone & Michel Juillard & Doug Laxton & Papa N'Diaye, 2002. "How Well Do Alternative Time-Varying Parameter Models of the NAIRU Help Policymakers Forecast Unemployment and Inflation in the OECD Countries?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 359, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  15. Kam Leong Szeto & Melody Guy, 2004. "Estimating a New Zealand NAIRU," Treasury Working Paper Series 04/10, New Zealand Treasury. [Downloadable!]
  16. Gómez García, F. & Rebollo Sanz, Y. & Usabiaga Ibáñez, C., 2002. "Nuevas estimaciones de la NAIRU de la economía española: métodos directos," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 20, pages 509-530, Diciembre. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Erik Walch, 2001. "An assessment of the national labour market," BCL working papers 1, Central Bank of Luxembourg. [Downloadable!]
  18. Ricardo Mestre & Silvia Fabiani, 2001. "A system approach for measuring the euro area NAIRU," Working Paper Series 065, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  19. Nicoletta Batini & Jennifer Greenslade, 2003. "Measuring The UK Short-Run NAIRU," Discussion Papers 12, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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