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Testing Steady-State Implications for the NAIRU

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  • Gunnar B�rdsen

    (Norwegian University of Science and Technology)

  • Ragnar Nymoen

    (University of Oslo)

Abstract

Estimates of the NAIRU are usually derived either from a Phillips curve or from a wage curve. This paper investigates the correspondence between the operational NAIRU concepts and the steady state of a dynamic wage-price model. We derive the parameter restrictions that secure that correspondence. The full set of restrictions can be tested by econometric analysis of the wage-price system, and this method is demonstrated for Norwegian data. A set of necessary conditions can be tested from estimated wage curves alone. Existing international evidence from empirical wage equations are reinterpreted in light of these conditions. © 2003 President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Review of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 85 (2003)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 1070-1075

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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:85:y:2003:i:4:p:1070-1075

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  1. Svensson, L.E.O., 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," Papers 638, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  2. Nickell, Stephen J, 1987. "Why Is Wage Inflation in Britain So High?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 49(1), pages 103-28, February.
  3. Olivier Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1996. "What We Know and Do Not Know About the Natural Rate of Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 5822, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 1995. "The Wage Curve," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026202375x, December.
  5. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence Katz, 1999. "Wage Dynamics: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6924, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 1991. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198284345, September.
  7. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1995. "The Phillips curve is alive and well," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 41-56.
  9. Nymoen, Ragnar, 1989. "Modelling Wages in the Small Open Economy: An Error-Correction Model of Norwegian Manufacturing Wages," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 51(3), pages 239-58, August.
  10. Paul G. Fisher & Gunnar BÅrdsen, 1999. "Economic theory and econometric dynamics in modelling wages and prices in the United Kingdom," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 483-507.
  11. DREZE, Jacques & BEAN, Charles, 1990. "Europe's employment problem: Introduction and synthesis," CORE Discussion Papers 1990041, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  12. Grubb, David B, 1986. "Topics in the OECD Phillips Curve," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 96(381), pages 55-79, March.
  13. Johansen, Kare, 1995. "Norwegian Wage Curves," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(2), pages 229-47, May.
  14. Dag Kolsrud & Ragnar Nymoen, 1998. "Unemployment and the open economy wage-price spiral," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 25(6), pages 450-467, October.
  15. Rodseth,A. & Nymoen,R., 1999. "Nordic wage formation and unemployment seven years later," Memorandum 10/1999, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  16. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen, 1986. "Unemployment in Britain," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 53(210(S)), pages S121-69, Supplemen.
  17. Holden, Steinar & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2002. " Measuring Structural Unemployment: NAWRU Estimates in the Nordic Countries," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 104(1), pages 87-104.
  18. repec:fth:louvco:9041 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. Robert J. Gordon, 1998. "Foundations of the Goldilocks Economy: Supply Shocks and the Time-Varying NAIRU," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 297-346.
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Cited by:
  1. Bårdsen, Gunnar & den Reijer, Ard & Jonasson, Patrik & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2012. "MOSES: Model for studying the economy of Sweden," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2566-2582.
  2. Valerija Botric, 2012. "NAIRU estimates for Croatia," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics, vol. 30(1), pages 163-180.
  3. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2004. "Double conditioned potential output," MPRA Paper 35769, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "Evaluating a Central Bank’s Recent Forecast Failure," Memorandum 22/2005, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  5. Nymoen, Ragnar & Rygh Swensen, Anders & Tveter, Eivind, 2011. "Interpreting the evidence for New Keynesian models of inflation dynamics," Memorandum 23/2011, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  6. Victor Montuenga & Inmaculada Garcia, 2011. "The wage dynamics in Spain: evidence from individual data," ERSA conference papers ersa11p585, European Regional Science Association.

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