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Evaluating a Central Bank’s Recent Forecast Failure

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  • Nymoen, Ragnar

    ()
    (Dept. of Economics, University of Oslo)

Abstract

Failures are not rare in economic forecasting, probably due to the high incidence of shocks and regime shifts in the economy. Thus, there is a premium on adaptation in the forecast process, in order to avoid sequences of forecast failure. This paper evaluates a sequence of inflation forecasts in the Norges Bank Inflation Report, and we present automatized forecasts which are unaffected by forecast failure. One conclusion is that the Norges Bank fan-charts are too narrow, giving an illusion of very precise forecasts. The automatized forecasts show more adaptation once shocks have occurred than is the case for the official forecasts. On the basis of the evidence, the recent inflation forecast failure appears to have been largely avoidable. The central bank’s understanding of the nature of the transmission mechanism and of the strenght and nature of the disinflationly shock that hit the economy appear to have played a major role in the recent forecast failure.

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File URL: http://www.sv.uio.no/econ/english/research/unpublished-works/working-papers/pdf-files/2005/Memo-22-2005.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Oslo University, Department of Economics in its series Memorandum with number 22/2005.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 10 Aug 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:osloec:2005_022

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics, University of Oslo, P.O Box 1095 Blindern, N-0317 Oslo, Norway
Phone: 22 85 51 27
Fax: 22 85 50 35
Email:
Web page: http://www.oekonomi.uio.no/indexe.html
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Related research

Keywords: Inflation forecasts; Monetary policy; Forecast uncertainty; Fan-charts; Structural change; Econometric models.;

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References

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  1. Granger,Clive W. J., 1999. "Empirical Modeling in Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521778251.
  2. Eitrheim,O. & Jansen,E.S. & Nymoen,R., 2000. "Progress from forecast failure : the Norwegian consumption function," Memorandum 32/2000, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  3. Gunnar Bårdsen & Ragnar Nymoen, 2000. "Testing Steady-State Implications for the NAIRU," Working Paper Series 1602, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, revised 30 Apr 2002.
  4. Gunnar Bårdsen & Eilev S. Jansen & Ragnar Nymoen, 1999. "Econometric Inflation Targeting," Working Paper Series 0502, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, revised 30 Oct 2001.
  5. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262531895, December.
  6. Neil R. Ericsson, 2001. "Forecast uncertainty in economic modeling," International Finance Discussion Papers 697, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Gunnar BARDSEN & Eilev JANSEN & Ragnar NYMOEN, 2002. "Model Specification and Inflation Forecast Uncertainty," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ENSAE, issue 67-68, pages 495-517.
  8. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502, September.
  9. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2002. "Modelling methodology and forecast failure," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 319-344, 06.
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