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Monetary policy and asset prices: To respond or not?

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  • Gunnar Bårdsen

    ()
    (Bank of Norway and Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology)

  • Q. Farooq Akram

    (Bank of Norway)

  • Øyvind Eitrheim

    ()
    (Bank of Norway)

Abstract

We investigate whether there is a case for asset prices in interest rates rules within a small econometric model of the Norwegian economy, modeling the interdependence of the real economy, credit and three classes of assets prices: housing prices, equity prices and the nominal exchange rate. We compare the performance of simple and efficient interest rate rules that allow for response to movements in asset prices to the performance of more standard monetary policy rules. We find that including housing prices and equity prices in the policy rules can improve macroeconomic performance in terms of both nominal and real economic stability. In contrast, a response to nominal exchange rate fluctuations can induce excess volatility in general and prove detrimental to macroeconomic stability.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology in its series Working Paper Series with number 5405.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 15 Sep 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nst:samfok:5405

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Keywords: Monetary policy; asset prices; simple interest rate rules; econometric model;

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References

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  4. Gunnar Bårdsen, 2005. "Stylized dynamic model representations - a note," Working Paper Series 6305, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
  5. Carl Walsh, 2003. "Speed Limit Policies: The Output Gap and Optimal Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 265-278, March.
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  11. Akram, Q. Farooq, 2006. "PPP in the medium run: The case of Norway," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 700-719, December.
  12. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 2005. "Assessing the Lucas Critique in Monetary Policy Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 245-72, April.
  13. Charles Bean, 2003. "Asset Prices, Financial Imbalances and Monetary Policy: Are Inflation Targets Enough?," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Anthony Richards & Tim Robinson (ed.), Asset Prices and Monetary Policy Reserve Bank of Australia.
  14. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502.
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  16. Gunnar Bardsen & Eilev S. Jansen & Ragnar Nymoen, 2003. "Econometric inflation targeting," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(2), pages 430-461, December.
  17. Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Gunnar Bårdsen & Kjersti-Gro Lindquist & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2006. "Evaluation of macroeconomic models for financial stability analysis," Working Paper 2006/01, Norges Bank.
  2. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Koray Alper & Luiz Pereira da Silva, 2011. "Capital Regulation, Monetary Policy and Financial Stability," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 154, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  3. Roger Hammersland & Dag Henning Jacobsen, 2008. "The Financial Accelerator: Evidence using a procedure of Structural Model Design," Discussion Papers 569, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
  4. Francesco FURLANETTO, 2008. "Does Monetary Policy React to Asset Prices? Some International Evidence," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 08.02, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
  5. Q. Farooq Akram & Ragnar Nymoen, 2006. "Model selection for monetary policy analysis – Importance of empirical validity," Working Paper 2006/13, Norges Bank.
  6. Bjørnland, Hilde C., 2005. "Monetary policy and exchange rate interactions in a small open economy," Memorandum 31/2005, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  7. Gurdgiev, Constantin T., 2006. "Owner-occupied housing in a model of exchange rate determination," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 217-229, September.
  8. Akram, Q. Farooq & Nymoen , Ragnar, 2007. "Model selection for monetary policy analysis How important is empirical validity?," Memorandum 14/2007, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  9. Q. Farooq Akram & Yakov Ben-Haim & Øyvind Eitrheim, 2006. "Managing uncertainty through robust-satisficing monetary policy," Working Paper 2006/10, Norges Bank.
  10. Anundsen, André K. & Jansen, Eilev S., 2013. "Self-reinforcing effects between housing prices and credit," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 192-212.
  11. Lee, Dong Jin & Son, Jong Chil, 2013. "Nonlinearity and structural breaks in monetary policy rules with stock prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 1-11.
  12. Lichao Cheng & Yi Jin & Zhixiong Zeng, 2011. "Asset Prices, Monetary Policy, and Aggregate Fluctuations: An Empirical Investigation," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series 13-11, Monash University, Department of Economics.

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