Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

The accuracy of a forecast targeting central bank

Contents:

Author Info

  • Skrove Falch, Nina
  • Nymoen, Ragnar

Abstract

This paper evaluates inflation forecasts made by Norges Bank which is a successful forecast targeting central bank. It is expected that Norges Bank produces inflation forecasts that are on average better than other forecasts, both naive forecasts, and forecasts from econometric models outside the central bank. We find that the superiority of the bank's forecast cannot be asserted, when compared with genuine ex-ante real time forecasts from an independent econometric model. The 1-step Monetary Policy Report forecasts are preferable to the 1-step forecasts from the outside model, but for the policy relevant horizons (e.g., 4 quarters ahead), the forecasts from the outsider model are preferred with a wider margin. An explanation in terms of too high speed of adjustment to the inflation target is supported by the evidence. Norges Bank's forecasts are better than the naive forecasts. Norwegian inflation appears to be predictable, despite the reduction in inflation persistence that has taken place over the last two decades. --

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2011-15
Download Restriction: no

File URL: http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/50737/1/669545562.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its journal Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal.

Volume (Year): 5 (2011)
Issue (Month): 15 ()
Pages: 1-36

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifweej:201115

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Kiellinie 66, D-24105 Kiel
Phone: +49 431 8814-1
Fax: +49 431 8814528
Email:
Web page: http://www.economics-ejournal.org/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: inflation forecasts; monetary policy; forecast comparison; forecast targeting central bank; econometric models;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
  2. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Clements Michael P. & Hendry David F., 2008. "Economic Forecasting in a Changing World," Capitalism and Society, De Gruyter, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 1-20, October.
  4. Akram, Q. Farooq & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2007. "Model selection for monetary policy analysis How important is empirical validity?," Memorandum, Oslo University, Department of Economics 14/2007, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  5. Gunnar Bårdsen & Eilev S. Jansen & Ragnar Nymoen, 1999. "Econometric Inflation Targeting," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology 0502, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, revised 30 Oct 2001.
  6. Mu-Chun Wang, 2009. "Comparing the DSGE model with the factor model: an out-of-sample forecasting experiment," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 167-182.
  7. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502, October.
  8. Christoffel, Kai & Warne, Anders & Coenen, Günter, 2010. "Forecasting with DSGE models," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 1185, European Central Bank.
  9. Athanasios Orphanides, 1998. "Monetary policy evaluation with noisy information," Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 1998-50, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Rubaszek, Michal & Skrzypczynski, Pawel, 2008. "On the forecasting performance of a small-scale DSGE model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 498-512.
  11. Nymoen, Ragnar, 1989. " Wages and the Length of the Working Day. An Empirical Test Based on Norwegian Quarterly Manufacturing Data," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 91(3), pages 599-612.
  12. �yvind Eitrheim & Eilev S. Jansen & Ragnar Nymoen, 2002. "Progress from forecast failure -- the Norwegian consumption function," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(1), pages 40-64, June.
  13. Michael Woodford, 2007. "The Case for Forecast Targeting as a Monetary Policy Strategy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 3-24, Fall.
  14. Karsten R. Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Christie Smith & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2009. "Evaluating ensemble density combination - forecasting GDP and inflation," Working Paper, Norges Bank 2009/19, Norges Bank.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "On the loss function of the Bank of Canada: A note," Economics Letters, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 155-159.
  2. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry & Ragnar Nymoen, 2012. "Mis-specification Testing: Non-Invariance of Expectations Models of Inflation," Working Paper Series, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis 50_12, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifweej:201115. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.