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Modelling Wages and Prices in Australia

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  • Gunnar Bårdsen

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology)

  • Stan Hurn

    ()
    (School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology)

  • Zoë McHugh

    (Tactical Global Management Ltd, Brisbane)

Abstract

Empirical models of Australian wages and prices are either single equation, equilibrium correction models or structural VAR models. Both theory and empirical evidence from other countries, however, suggests that wages and prices are jointly determined. Consequently, this paper estimates a simultaneous equation model of wages and prices for Australia, underpinned by a competing claims framework of imperfect competition. Two separate cointegrating relationships for wages and prices are identfied by imposing the economic hypotheses implied by the theory. The steady-state relationships for wages and prices are then embedded in a parsimonious, dynamic wage-price model.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology in its series Working Paper Series with number 1202.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: 22 Nov 2001
Date of revision: 30 Sep 2005
Handle: RePEc:nst:samfok:1202

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Keywords: wage and price; cointegration; dynamic modelling; partial systems; structural break;

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References

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  1. Franz, Wolfgang & Gordon, Robert J., 1993. "German and American wage and price dynamics : Differences and common themes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 719-754, May.
  2. Franz, Wolfgang & Gordon, Robert J., 1993. "German and American wage and price dynamics: Differences and common themes," Discussion Papers 2, University of Konstanz, Center for International Labor Economics (CILE).
  3. Rodseth,A. & Nymoen,R., 1999. "Nordic wage formation and unemployment seven years later," Memorandum 10/1999, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  4. Olivier J. Blanchard, 1985. "The Wage Price Spiral," Working papers 400, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  5. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 1989. "The Wage Curve," NBER Working Papers 3181, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Blanchflower, D. & Oswald, A., 1989. "The Wage Curve," Papers 340, London School of Economics - Centre for Labour Economics.
  6. Harbo, Ingrid, et al, 1998. "Asymptotic Inference on Cointegrating Rank in Partial Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 388-99, October.
  7. Lawrence F. Katz & Olivier Blanchard, 1999. "Wage Dynamics: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 69-74, May.
  8. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  9. Gruen, David & Pagan, Adrian & Thompson, Christopher, 1999. "The Phillips curve in Australia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 223-258, October.
  10. Jacqueline Dwyer & Kenneth Leong, 2001. "Changes in the determinants of inflation in Australia," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Empirical studies of structural changes and inflation, volume 3, pages 1-28 Bank for International Settlements.
  11. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
  12. Dag Kolsrud & Ragnar Nymoen, 1998. "Unemployment and the open economy wage-price spiral," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 25(6), pages 450-467, October.
  13. Carlin, Wendy & Soskice, David, 1990. "Macroeconomics and the Wage Bargain: A Modern Approach to Employment, Inflation, and the Exchange Rate," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198772446.
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Cited by:
  1. Bjørnar Karlsen Kivedal, 2013. "A New Keynesian Framework and Wage and Price Dynamics in the US," Working Paper Series 15113, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
  2. David Norman & Anthony Richards, 2010. "Modelling Inflation in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2010-03, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  3. Saten Kumar & Don J. Webber & Geoff Perry, 2012. "Real wages, inflation and labour productivity in Australia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(23), pages 2945-2954, August.
  4. Rita Duarte & Carlos Marques, 2013. "The dynamic effects of shocks to wages and prices in the United States and the Euro Area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 613-638, April.
  5. David Norman & Anthony Richards, 2012. "The Forecasting Performance of Single Equation Models of Inflation," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(280), pages 64-78, 03.

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