Inflation adjustment in the open economy: an I(2) analysis of UK prices
AbstractWe analyse a cointegrated VAR comprising UK data on consumer prices, unit labour costs, import prices and real consumption growth. The nominal variables, treated as I(2) here, form a linearly homogeneous relation, suggesting a transformation of the system to one comprising inflation and relative prices. This is then estimated in I(1) space. An impulse response analysis using the results suggests that higher real import prices reduce real wages, such that the impact of an external shock on domestic inflation is moderated. This explains why the depreciation of sterling in 1992 left inflation unchanged. In contrast, high real import prices in 1974 increased inflation because wage accommodation effects were absent.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.
Volume (Year): 31 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
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Other versions of this item:
- Heino Bohn Nielsen & Christopher Bowdler, 2003. "Inflation Adjustment in the Open Economy: An I(2) Analysis of UK Prices," Economics Papers 2003-W05, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- F0 - International Economics - - General
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