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Openness, exchange rate regimes and the Phillips curve

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Abstract

A number of theoretical models predict that the slope of the Phillips curve increases with trade openness, but cross-country studies provide little evidence for such a correlation. We highlight two reasons for this finding. Firstly, the strength of the relationship may depend on the extent of exchange rate adjustment, which is a potential determinant of output and inflation dynamics in open economies, but previous studies have not made a distinction between fixed and floating exchange rate regimes. Secondly, existing estimates of the Phillips curve slope are based on data from the 1950s through the 1980s, and are therefore likely affected by price and wage controls, inflationary oil price hikes and the role played by fiscal policy in driving output and inflation (the underlying theory requires that monetary shocks dominate). We calculate new measures of the Phillips curve slope using data from 1981-98, a period during which these factors were arguably less important. Regressions based on the new measures indicate that the Phillips curve slope increases with trade openness amongst countries maintaining flexible and semi-flexible exchange rate regimes, but is unrelated to openness amongst countries maintaining fixed exchange rate regimes.

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File URL: http://www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/economics/papers/2005/w25/PCpaperOct05.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford in its series Economics Papers with number 2005-W25.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: 01 Oct 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nuf:econwp:0525

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Web page: http://www.nuff.ox.ac.uk/economics/

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Keywords: Openness; inflation; Phillips curve; sacrifice ratio; exchange rate regime.;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2014. "The sacrifice ratio and core inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 400-421.
  2. Daniels, Joseph P. & VanHoose, David D., 2013. "Exchange-rate pass through, openness, and the sacrifice ratio," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 131-150.
  3. Harald Badinger, 2008. "Globalization,the Output-Inflation Tradeoff, and Inflation," FIW Working Paper series 010, FIW.
  4. Joseph Daniels & David VanHoose, 2009. "Trade Openness, Capital Mobility, and the Sacrifice Ratio," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 473-487, September.
  5. Bowdler, Christopher & Nunziata, Luca, 2010. "Labor market structures and the sacrifice ratio," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 816-826, September.
  6. Harald Badinger & Elisabeth Nindl, 2012. "Sacrifice Ratios, Benefice Ratios, and Globalization: Evidence from a New Set of Estimates," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(1), pages 421-428.
  7. Jose De Gregorio, 2007. "Defining Inflation Targets, the Policy Horizon and the Output-Inflation Tradeoff," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 415, Central Bank of Chile.
  8. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2012. "Determinants of the Sacrifice Ratio: Evidence from OECD and non-OECD countries," Working Papers 106, Wake Forest University, Economics Department.
  9. Andrea Vaona, 2014. "The Price-Price Phillips Curve in Small Open Economies and Monetary Unions: Theory and Empirics," Kiel Working Papers 1904, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  10. Andrew Pickering & Hector Valle, 2008. "Openness, imported commodities and the Phillips Curve," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 08/608, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
  11. Cavelaars, Paul, 2009. "Does globalisation discipline monetary policymakers?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 392-405, April.

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