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The Wage Curve

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Author Info
David G. Blanchflower
Andrew J. Oswald

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Abstract

This paper, which follows in an LSE tradition begun by Phillips and Sargan, examines the role of unemployment in shaping pay. In contrast to most of the literature, it 1) uses microeconometric data on individuals and workplaces 2) examines a variety of data sets as a check on the robustness of results, and 3) studies the effects of unemployment on the real wage level (not on the rate of change of payor prices) . The paper finds evidence - on British and US data - of a wage curve. The curve has a negative gradient at low levels of unemployment, but becomes horizontal at relatively high levels of unemployment.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3181.

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Date of creation: Sep 1990
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3181

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Hersoug, Tor & Kjaer, Knut N & Rodseth, Asbjorn, 1986. "Wages, Taxes and the Utility-Maximizing Trade Union: A Confrontationwith Norwegian Data," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 38(3), pages 403-23, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. David Card, 1988. "Unexpected Inflation, Real Wages, and Employment Determination in Union Contracts," NBER Working Papers 2768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. John H. Pencavel, 1982. "The Trade-Off between Wages and Employment in Trade Union Objectives," NBER Working Papers 0870, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Nickell, Stephen J, 1987. "Why Is Wage Inflation in Britain So High?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 49(1), pages 103-28, February.
  5. Holmlund, B. & Skedinger, P., 1988. "Wage Bargaining And Wage Drift: Evidence From The Swedish Wood Industry," Papers 419, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  6. Nash, John, 1953. "Two-Person Cooperative Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 21(1), pages 128-140, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Holly, Sean & Smith, Peter, 1987. "A Two-Sector Analysis of the UK Labour Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 49(1), pages 79-102, February.
  8. Desai, Meghnad, 1973. "Growth cycles and inflation in a model of the class struggle," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 6(6), pages 527-545, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Farber, Henry S, 1978. "Individual Preferences and Union Wage Determination: The Case of the United Mine Workers," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(5), pages 923-42, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Ken Binmore & Ariel Rubinstein & Asher Wolinsky, 1986. "The Nash Bargaining Solution in Economic Modelling," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 17(2), pages 176-188, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Rowlatt, Penelope A, 1987. "A Model of Wage Bargaining," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 49(4), pages 347-72, November.
  12. Beckerman, Wilfred & Jenkinson, Tim, 1986. "What Stopped the Inflation? Unemployment of Commodity Prices?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 96(381), pages 39-54, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Adams, James D, 1985. "Permanent Differences in Unemployment and Permanent Wage Differentials," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(1), pages 29-56, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Blackaby, D H & Manning, D N, 1987. "Regional Earnings Revisited," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(2), pages 158-83, June.
  15. Grubb, David B, 1986. "Topics in the OECD Phillips Curve," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 96(381), pages 55-79, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Laidler, David E W & Parkin, J Michael, 1975. "Inflation: A Survey," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 85(340), pages 741-809, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Freeman, Richard B, 1988. "Evaluating the European View that the United States Has No Unemployment Problem," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 294-99, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Paldam, Martin, 1980. " The International Element in the Phillips Curve," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 82(2), pages 216-39.
  19. Anderson, T.M. & Risager, O., 1988. "Wage Formation In Denmark," Papers 414, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  20. Holmlund, B. & Skedinger, P., 1988. "Wage Bargaining And Wage Drift: Evidence From Swedish Wood Industry," Papers 1988g, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
  21. Wadhwani, Sushil B, 1985. "Wage Inflation in the United Kingdom," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 52(206), pages 195-207, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Oswald, Andrew J, 1982. "The Microeconomic Theory of the Trade Union," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(367), pages 576-95, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen, 1986. "Unemployment in Britain," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 53(210(S)), pages S121-69, Supplemen. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Gilbert, C L, 1976. "The Original Phillips Curve Estimates," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 43(169), pages 51-57, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Carruth, Alan A & Oswald, Andrew J, 1985. "Miners' Wages in Post-war Britain: An Application of a Model of Trade Union Behaviour," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(380), pages 1003-20, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  26. Mcconnell, S., 1988. "Strikes, Wages And Private Information," Papers 10, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Discussion Paper.
  27. Louis N. Christofides & Andrew J. Oswald, 1989. "Real Wage Determinatioan in Collective BArgaining Agreements," NBER Working Papers 3188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Bils, Mark J, 1985. "Real Wages over the Business Cycle: Evidence from Panel Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(4), pages 666-89, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  29. Christofides, Louis N & Swidinsky, Robert & Wilton, David A, 1980. "A Microeconometric Analysis of the Canadian Wage Determination Process," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 47(186), pages 165-78, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  30. Marston, Stephen T, 1985. "Two Views of the Geographic Distribution of Unemployment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(1), pages 57-79, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  31. Hoel, Michael & Nymoen, Ragnar, 1988. "Wage formation in norwegian manufacturing: An empirical application of a theoretical bargaining model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 977-997, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  32. Andersen, T.M. & Risager, O., 1988. "Wage Formation In Denmark," Economics Working Papers 1988-10, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  33. McDonald, Ian M & Solow, Robert M, 1981. "Wage Bargaining and Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 896-908, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  34. Manning, Alan, 1990. "Imperfect Competition, Multiple Equilibria and Unemployment Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(400), pages 151-62, Supplemen. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  35. Nickell, Stephen & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1988. "Unions, wages and employment : Tests based on U.K. firm-level data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(2-3), pages 727-733, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  36. Topel, Robert H, 1986. "Local Labor Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages S111-43, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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