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Changes in the Determinants of Inflation in Australia

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Author Info
Jacqueline Dwyer (Reserve Bank of Australia)
Kenneth Leong (Reserve Bank of Australia)
Abstract

In the past decade, inflation in Australia and most other industrialised countries has been extremely well behaved. An important question is whether this reflects a series of favourable shocks to prices or a more fundamental change in the inflation process. In this paper, we explore developments in each of the key explanators of inflation. We find that some of the determinants of inflation in Australia have exhibited unusual or structural change in recent years. Using a mark-up model of inflation, we attempt to identify whether there has been a change in the relationship between inflation and its determinants. We find some tentative evidence of change. Although this change is not statistically significant, it may be economically significant. It leaves open the possibility that some forces may be emerging that could help reduce the variability of inflation in response to shocks.

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Paper provided by Reserve Bank of Australia in its series RBA Research Discussion Papers with number rdp2001-02.

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Date of creation: May 2001
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Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2001-02

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Related research
Keywords: determinants of inflation; import prices; productivity; wages;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Jacqueline Dwyer & Christopher Kent & Andrew Pease, 1993. "Exchange Rate Pass-through: The Different Responses of Importers and Exporters," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9304, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  2. David Gruen & Jacqueline Dwyer, 1995. "Are Terms of Trade Rises Inflationary?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9508, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  3. Meredith Beechey & Nargis Bharucha & Adam Cagliarini & David Gruen & Christopher Thompson, 2000. "A Small Model of the Australian Macroeconomy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2000-05, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  4. Menon, Jayant, 1995. " Exchange Rate Pass-Through," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 9(2), pages 197-231, June.
  5. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Taylor, John B., 2000. "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1389-1408, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Alexandra Heath & Ivan Roberts & Tim Bulman, 2004. "Inflation in Australia: Measurement and Modelling," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Christopher Kent & Simon Guttmann (ed.), The Future of Inflation Targeting Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  2. Dubravko Mihaljek & Marc Klau, 2008. "Exchange rate pass-through in emerging market economies: what has changed and why?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 103-130 Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jonathan Kearns & Ricardo J. Caballero & Kevin Cowan, 2004. "Fear of Sudden Stops: lessons from Australia and Chile," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 185, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Andrew Stone & Troy Wheatley & Louise Wilkinson, 2005. "A Small Model of the Australian Macroeconomy: An Update," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2005-11, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  5. Gunnar Bårdsen & Stan Hurn & Zoë McHugh, 2001. "Modelling Wages and Prices in Australia," Working Paper Series 1202, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, revised 30 Sep 2005. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Mardi Dungey, 2001. "International Shocks and the Role of Domestic Policy in Australia," CEPR Discussion Papers 443, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Guy Debelle & Jenny Wilkinson, 2002. "Inflation Targeting and the Inflation Process: Some Lessons from an Open Economy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2002-01, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
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