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Exchange Rate Pass-Through into German Import Prices – A Disaggregated Perspective

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  • Joscha Beckmann
  • Florian Verheyen
  • Ansgar Belke

Abstract

This study analyzes the exchange rate pass-through into German import prices based on disaggregated data taken on a monthly basis between 1995 and 2012. Our main contribution is twofold: firstly, we employ various time-series techniques to analyze data for different product categories, and also cointegration techniques to carefully distinguish between shortrun and long-run pass-through coefficients. Secondly, in a panel data approach we estimate time-varying pass-through coefficients and explain their development with regard to various macroeconomic factors. Our results show that long-run pass-through is only partly observable and incomplete, while short-run pass-through shows a more unique character, although heterogeneity across product groups does exist. We are also able to identify several macroeconomic factors which determine changes in the degree of pass-through, which is especially relevant for policymakers.

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File URL: http://www.rome-net.org/RePEc/rmn/wpaper/rome-wp-2013-06.pdf
File Function: First version, 2013
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ROME Network in its series ROME Working Papers with number 201306.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rmn:wpaper:201306

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Web page: http://www.rome-net.org

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Keywords: exchange rate pass-through; Germany; cointegration; time-varying coefficient model;

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  1. Al-Abri, Almukhtar S. & Goodwin, Barry K., 2009. "Re-examining the exchange rate pass-through into import prices using non-linear estimation techniques: Threshold cointegration," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 142-161, January.
  2. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  3. Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh, 2012. "Long Run Exchange Rate Pass-Through: A Panel Cointegration Approach," FIW Working Paper series 078, FIW.
  4. Taylor, John B., 2000. "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1389-1408, June.
  5. Eiji Fuji & Jeannine Bailliu, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through and the Inflation Environment in Industrialized Countries: An Empirical Investigation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 135, Society for Computational Economics.
  6. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  7. Bussière, Matthieu & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2008. "Exchange rate pass-through in the global economy: the role of emerging market economies," Working Paper Series 0951, European Central Bank.
  8. José Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 679-690, November.
  9. Delatte, Anne-Laure & López-Villavicencio, Antonia, 2012. "Asymmetric exchange rate pass-through: Evidence from major countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 833-844.
  10. Bussière, Matthieu, 2007. "Exchange rate pass-through to trade prices: the role of non-linearities and asymmetries," Working Paper Series 0822, European Central Bank.
  11. Berner, Eike, 2011. "Exchange rate pass-through: New evidence from German micro data," Economics Working Papers 2011,01, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  12. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1987. "Exchange Rates and Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 93-106, March.
  13. Brun-Aguerre, Raphael & Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Phylaktis, Kate, 2012. "Exchange rate pass-through into import prices revisited: What drives it?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 818-844.
  14. Froot, Kenneth A & Klemperer, Paul D, 1989. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through When Market Share Matters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 637-54, September.
  15. Haroon Mumtaz & Özlem Oomen & Jian Wang, 2006. "Exchange rate pass-through into UK import prices," Bank of England working papers 312, Bank of England.
  16. Ben Cheikh, Nidhaleddine, 2012. "Non-linearities in exchange rate pass-through: Evidence from smooth transition models," MPRA Paper 39258, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  17. Stahn, Kerstin, 2009. "Changes in import pricing behaviour: the case of Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,14, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  18. Bussière, M. & Delle Chiaie, S. & Peltonen, T. A., 2013. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Global Economy," Working papers 424, Banque de France.
  19. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
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