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Exchange Rate Pass-Through and the Inflation Environment in Industrialized Countries: An Empirical Investigation

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Author Info
Jeannine Bailliu
Eiji Fujii

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Abstract

This paper investigates the question of whether a transition to a low-inflation environment, induced by a shift in monetary policy, results in a decline in the degree of pass-through of exchange rate movements to consumer prices. It differs from previous empirical work in its focus on the identification of changes in the inflation environment and its use of a panel-data approach. Evidence from a panel-data set of 11 industrialized countries over the period from 1977 to 2001, supports the hypothesis that exchange rate pass-through declines with a shift to a low-inflation environment brought about by a change in the monetary policy regime. More specifically, the results suggest that pass-through to import, producer, and consumer price inflation declined following the inflation stabilization that occurred in many industrialized countries in the early 1990s but did not decline following a similar episode in the 1980s. Several potential explanations for this finding are discussed, including the possibility that changes in the monetary policy regimes implemented in the 1990s were perceived as more credible than those carried out in the 1980s, and the possibility that the credibility of the new monetary policy regimes was acquired over time.

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Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 04-21.

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Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:04-21

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Related research
Keywords: Inflation and Prices Exchange Rates International Topics

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Amstad, Marlene & Fischer, Andreas M, 2005. "Time-Varying Pass-Through from Import Prices to Consumer Prices: Evidence from an Event Study with Real-Time Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 5395, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Reginaldo P. Nogueira Junior & Miguel Leon-Ledesma, 2008. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through Into Inflation: The Role of Asymmetries and NonLinearities," Studies in Economics 0801, Department of Economics, University of Kent. [Downloadable!]
  3. Claudio Soto & Luis F. Céspedes, 2006. "Credibility and Inflation Targeting in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 408, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  4. Haroon Mumtaz & Özlem Oomen & Jian Wang, . "Exchange rate pass-through into UK import prices," Bank of England working papers 312, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  5. barhoumi karim, 2005. "Long Run Exchange Rate Pass-Through Into Import Prices In Developing Countries: An Homogeneous or Heterogeneous Phenomenon?," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 6(14), pages 1-12. [Downloadable!]
  6. Reginaldo P. Nogueira Jnr, 2006. "Inflation Targeting and the Role of Exchange Rate Pass-through," Studies in Economics 0602, Department of Economics, University of Kent. [Downloadable!]
  7. Linda S. Goldberg & José Manuel Campa, 2006. "Distribution Margins, Imported Inputs, and the Sensitivity of the CPI to Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 12121, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Lynda Khalaf & Maral Kichian, 2006. "Structural Change in Covariance and Exchange Rate Pass-Through: The Case of Canada," Working Papers 06-2, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
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