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Has Exchange Rate Pass-Through Really Declined in Canada?

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Author Info
Hafedh Bouakez
Nooman Rebei

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Abstract

Several empirical studies suggest that exchange rate pass-through has declined in recent years in industrialized countries. Results for Canada also indicate that, in the 1990s, import and consumer prices became less responsive to exchange rate movements. These findings are based on reducedform regressions that are typically motivated by partial-equilibrium models of pricing. Bouakez and Rebei instead use a structural, general-equilibrium approach to test the premise that exchange rate pass-through has decreased in Canada. Their approach consists in estimating a dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model for Canada over two subsamples, which cover the periods before and after the Bank's adoption of inflation targeting. The authors then use impulse-response analysis to assess the stability of exchange rate pass-through across the two subsamples. Their results indicate that pass-through to Canadian import prices has been rather stable, while passthrough to Canadian consumer prices has declined in recent years. Counterfactual experiments reveal that the change in monetary policy regime is largely responsible for this decline.

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Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 05-29.

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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:05-29

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Related research
Keywords: Business fluctuations and cycles; Economic models; Exchange rates; Inflation and prices; International topics;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 2000. "Exchange rate dynamics in a model of pricing-to-market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 215-244, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2003. "Monetary Policy in the Open Economy Revisited: Price Setting and Exchange-Rate Flexibility," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 70(4), pages 765-783, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel & Peter E. Storgaard, 2003. "Endogenous Exchange Rate Pass-through when Nominal Prices are Set in Advance," NBER Working Papers 9543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Maral Kichian, 2001. "On the Nature and the Stability of the Canadian Phillips Curve," Working Papers 01-4, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  5. Sutherland, Alan, 2002. "Incomplete Pass-Through and the Welfare Effects of Exchange Rate Variability," CEPR Discussion Papers 3431, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Jose Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2002. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices: A Macro or Micro Phenomenon?," NBER Working Papers 8934, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Ireland, Peter N., 2003. "Endogenous money or sticky prices?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1623-1648, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Engel, Charles, 2002. "The Responsiveness of Consumer Prices to Exchange Rates: A Synthesis of Some New Open Economy Macro Models," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 70(0), pages 1-15, Supplemen. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Jeannine Bailliu & Hafedh Bouakez, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Industrialized Countries," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2004(Spring), pages 19-28. [Downloadable!]
  10. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo, 2005. "International dimensions of optimal monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 281-305, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Kollman, R., 1996. "The Exchange Rate in a Dynamic-Optimizing Current Account Model with Nominal Rigidities: A Quantitative Investigation," Cahiers de recherche 9614, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
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  12. Bergin, Paul R., 2003. "Putting the 'New Open Economy Macroeconomics' to a test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 3-34, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Adolfson, Malin, 2001. "Monetary Policy with Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 476, Stockholm School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Ingram, Beth Fisher & Kocherlakota, Narayana R. & Savin, N. E., 1994. "Explaining business cycles: A multiple-shock approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 415-428, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2002. "Openness: imperfect exchange rate pass-through and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 128, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Joseph E. Gagnon & Jane Ihrig, 2001. "Monetary policy and exchange rate pass-through," International Finance Discussion Papers 704, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  17. Steve Ambler & Ali Dib & Nooman Rebei, 2003. "Nominal Rigidities and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in a Structural Model of a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 03-29, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  18. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Dalia Hakura & Ehsan U. Choudhri, 2001. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices: Does the Inflationary Environment Matter?," IMF Working Papers 01/194, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Istvan Konya, 2005. "Economic Development, Exchange Rates, and the Structure of Trade," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0514, Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences. [Downloadable!]
  2. Balazs Vonnak, 2008. "The Hungarian monetary transmission mechanism: an assessment," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 235-257 Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  3. Pierre L. Siklos, 2009. "As Good As It Gets? The International Dimension to Canada's Monetary Policy Strategy Choices," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 292, July. [Downloadable!]
  4. Balázs Vonnák, 2007. "The Hungarian Monetary Transmission Mechanism: an Assessment," MNB Working Papers 2007/3, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (The Central Bank of Hungary). [Downloadable!]
  5. Roberto Álvarez & Patricio Jaramillo & Jorge Selaive, 2008. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices: The Case of Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 465, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  6. Andrés González & Hernán Rincón & Norberto Rodríguez, . "La transmisión de los choques a la tasa de cambio sobre la inflación de los bienes importados en presencia de asimetrías," Borradores de Economia 532, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
  7. Lynda Khalaf & Maral Kichian, 2006. "Structural Change in Covariance and Exchange Rate Pass-Through: The Case of Canada," Working Papers 06-2, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  8. Andrés González & Hernán Rincóm & Norberto Rodríguez, 2008. "La transmisión de los choques a la tasa de cambio sobre la inflación," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 005089, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
  9. David Laidler, 2007. "Better Late Than Never: Towards a Systematic Review of Canada's Monetary Policy Regime," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 252, July. [Downloadable!]
  10. Marcelo Sánchez, 2008. "Oil shocks and endogenous markups - results from an estimated euro area DSGE model," Working Paper Series 860, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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