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Exchange Rate Pass-through into German Import Prices – A Disaggregated Perspective

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  • Joscha Beckmann

    ()

  • Ansgar Belke
  • Florian Verheyen

Abstract

This study analyzes the exchange rate pass-through into German import prices based on disaggregated data taken on a monthly basis between 1995 and 2012. Our main contribution is twofold: firstly, we employ various time-series techniques to analyze data for different product categories, and also cointegration techniques to carefully distinguish between shortrun and long-run pass-through coefficients. Secondly, in a panel data approach we estimate time-varying pass-through coefficients and explain their development with regard to various macroeconomic factors. Our results show that long-run pass-through is only partly observable and incomplete, while short-run passthrough shows a more unique character, although heterogeneity across product groups does exist. We are also able to identify several macroeconomic factors which determine changes in the degree of pass-through, which is especially relevant for policymakers.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen in its series Ruhr Economic Papers with number 0427.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rwi:repape:0427

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Keywords: Exchange rate pass-through; Germany; cointegration; time-varying coefficient model;

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  1. Bussière, Matthieu, 2007. "Exchange rate pass-through to trade prices: the role of non-linearities and asymmetries," Working Paper Series 0822, European Central Bank.
  2. Jeannine Bailliu & Eiji Fujii, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through and the Inflation Environment in Industrialized Countries: An Empirical Investigation," Working Papers 04-21, Bank of Canada.
  3. Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh, 2012. "Non-linearities in exchange rate pass-through: Evidence from smooth transition models," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 2530-2545.
  4. Taylor, John B., 2000. "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1389-1408, June.
  5. Campa, José Manuel & Goldberg, Linda S, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 4391, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Brun-Aguerre, Raphael & Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Phylaktis, Kate, 2012. "Exchange rate pass-through into import prices revisited: What drives it?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 818-844.
  7. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  8. Delatte, Anne-Laure & López-Villavicencio, Antonia, 2012. "Asymmetric exchange rate pass-through: Evidence from major countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 833-844.
  9. Stahn, Kerstin, 2009. "Changes in import pricing behaviour: the case of Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,14, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  10. Bussière, Matthieu & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2008. "Exchange rate pass-through in the global economy: the role of emerging market economies," Working Paper Series 0951, European Central Bank.
  11. Berner, Eike, 2011. "Exchange rate pass-through: New evidence from German micro data," Economics Working Papers 2011,01, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  12. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  13. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1987. "Exchange Rates and Prices," NBER Working Papers 1769, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Kenneth A. Froot & Paul Klemperer, 1989. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through When Market Share Matters," NBER Working Papers 2542, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Haroon Mumtaz & Özlem Oomen & Jian Wang, 2006. "Exchange rate pass-through into UK import prices," Bank of England working papers 312, Bank of England.
  16. Bussière, M. & Delle Chiaie, S. & Peltonen, T. A., 2013. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Global Economy," Working papers 424, Banque de France.
  17. Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh, 2012. "Long Run Exchange Rate Pass-Through: A Panel Cointegration Approach," FIW Working Paper series 078, FIW.
  18. Al-Abri, Almukhtar S. & Goodwin, Barry K., 2009. "Re-examining the exchange rate pass-through into import prices using non-linear estimation techniques: Threshold cointegration," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 142-161, January.
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