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Long Run Exchange Rate Pass-Through: A Panel Cointegration Approach

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  • Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh

Abstract

This paper examines the extent and evolution of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) using panel cointegration approach. For 27 OECD countries, we provide a strong evidence of incomplete ERPT in sample of 27 OECD countries. Both FM-OLS and DOLS estimators show that pass-through elasticity does not exceed 0.70%. When considering individual estimates, we note a cross-country differences in the long run ERPT. We find that inflation regime and exchange rate volatility are potential macroeconomic sources of this long-run heterogeneity. When focusing on the subsample of 12 European Monetary Union (EMU) countries, our results show a steady decline in the degree of ERPT throughout the different exchange rate arrangements: pass-through elasticity was close to unity during the "snake-in-the tunnel" period while it is about 0.50% since the formation of the euro area. The observed decline in ERPT to import prices was synchronous to the shift towards reduced inflation regime.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by FIW in its series FIW Working Paper series with number 078.

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Length: 41
Date of creation: Apr 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wsr:wpaper:y:2012:i:078

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Keywords: Exchange Rate Pass-Through; Import Prices; Nonstationary Panel data;

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References

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  1. Mark J. Holmes, 2006. "Is a Low-inflation Environment Associated with Reduced Exchange Rate Pass Through?," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 19(2), pages 58-68, Autumn.
  2. Jeannine Bailliu & Eiji Fujii, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through and the Inflation Environment in Industrialized Countries: An Empirical Investigation," Working Papers 04-21, Bank of Canada.
  3. .De Bandt, O. & Banerjee, A. & Kozluk, T., 2007. "Measuring Long-Run Exchange Rate Pass-Through," Working papers 173, Banque de France.
  4. Jose Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2002. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices: A Macro or Micro Phenomenon?," NBER Working Papers 8934, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Menon, Jayant, 1995. " Exchange Rate Pass-Through," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 197-231, June.
  6. Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  7. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
  8. barhoumi karim, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through Into Import Prices In Developing Countries: An Empirical Investigation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 28(10), pages A0.
  9. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2005:i:26:p:1-14 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Mark J. Holmes, 2008. "Long-Run Pass-Through From The Exchange Rate To Import Prices In African Countries," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 33(1), pages 97-111, June.
  11. Sven W. Arndt & J. David Richardson, 1988. "Real-Financial Linkages Among Open Economies," NBER Working Papers 2230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Belke, Ansgar & Beckmann, Joscha & Verheyen, Florian, 2013. "Exchange rate pass-through into German import prices - a disaggregated perspective," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79855, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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