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Measuring Long-Run Exchange Rate Pass-Through

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  • de Bandt, Olivier
  • Banerjee, Anindya
  • Kozluk, Tomasz

Abstract

The paper discusses the issue of estimating short- and long-run exchange rate pass-through to import prices in euro area countries and reviews some problems with the measures recently proposed in the literature. Theoretical considerations suggest a long-run Engle and Granger cointegrating relationship (between import unit values, the exchange rate and foreign prices), which is typically ignored in existing empirical studies. We use time series and up-to-date panel data techniques to test for cointegration with the possibility of structural breaks and show how the long-run may be restored in the estimation. The main finding is that allowing for possible breaks around the formation of EMU and the appreciation of the euro starting in 2001 helps restore a long run cointegration relationship, where over the sample period the fixed component of the pass-through decreased while the variable component tended to increase. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Economics Discussion Papers with number 2007-32.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:5737

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Keywords: exchange rates; pass-through; import prices; panel cointegration; structural break;

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  1. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
  2. Campa, Jose Manuel & Gonzalez Minguez, Jose M., 2006. "Differences in exchange rate pass-through in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 121-145, January.
  3. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2002. "Openness, imperfect exchange rate pass-through and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 947-981, July.
  4. Mario Marazzi & Nathan Sheets & Robert J. Vigfusson & Jon Faust & Joseph Gagnon & Jaime Marquez & Robert F. Martin & Trevor Reeve & John Rogers, 2005. "Exchange rate pass-through to U.S. import prices: some new evidence," International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 833, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti, 2001. "International Dimensions of Optimal Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Banerjee, Anindya & Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluís, 2006. "Cointegration in panel data with breaks and cross-section dependence," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 0591, European Central Bank.
  7. Jose Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg & Jose M. Gonzalez-Minguez, 2005. "Exchange rate pass-through to import prices in the Euro area," Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York 219, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  8. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2001. "A Panic Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Economics Working Paper Archive, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics 469, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  9. Jeffrey Frankel & David Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 2012. "Slow Pass-through Around the World: A New Import for Developing Countries?," Open Economies Review, Springer, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 213-251, April.
  10. Adolfson, Malin, 2001. "Monetary Policy with Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through," Working Paper Series 127, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  11. Devereux, Michael B. & Engel, Charles, 2002. "Exchange rate pass-through, exchange rate volatility, and exchange rate disconnect," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 913-940, July.
  12. Banerjee, A. & Marcellino, M. & Osbat, C., 2000. "Some Cautions on the Use of Panel Methods for Integrated Series of Macro-economic Data," Economics Working Papers, European University Institute eco2000/20, European University Institute.
  13. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel & Cedric Tille, 1999. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through and the Welfare Effects of the Euro," NBER Working Papers 7382, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Taylor, John B., 2000. "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1389-1408, June.
  15. Gita Gopinath & Roberto Rigobon, 2008. "Sticky Borders," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 123(2), pages 531-575, 05.
  16. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca & Leduc, Sylvain, 2008. "High exchange-rate volatility and low pass-through," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 55(6), pages 1113-1128, September.
  17. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  18. Maurice Obstfeld, 2002. "Inflation-Targeting, Exchange-Rate Pass-Through, and Volatility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 102-107, May.
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