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How different is the exchange rate pass-through in new member states of the EU? Some potential explanatory factors

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Author Info
María-Dolores, Ramon (Departamentos y Servicios::Departamentos de la UMU::Fundamentos del Análisis Económico)

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Abstract

This paper uses data on import unit values for nine different product categories and bilateral imports to study the pass-through of exchange rate changes into the prices of imports that originated inside the Euro Area made by some New Member States (NMSs) of the European Union and one candidate country (Turkey). I estimate industry-specific rates of pass-through across and within countries using the methodological approach proposed by de Bandt, Banerjee and Kozluk (2008). I did not find evidence in favour of the hypothesis of Local Currency Pricing (zero pass-through) and the hypothesis of Producer Currency Pricing (complete pass-through) could be accepted in some countries for different industries. My results also show that there is a clear positive relationship between exchange rate pass-through and average inflation in these countries. I do find a slightly positive pattern for the relationship between exchange rate pass-through and openness. With reference to the relationship between exchange rate pass-through and the type of exchange rate regime I observe that a less volatile exchange rate implies a less degree of exchange rate pass-through. In industries I obtain a less degree of exchange rate pass-through in differentiated manufactured products. By including possible statistical break-dates in the estimation process I observe that some NMSs have decreased the exchange rate pass-through in recent years. Some of the breaks are close to the dates of some major institutional changes in these countries (changes in monetary policy and exchange rate regimes and the starting up of the EU membership).

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Paper provided by Murcia University, DIGITUM. Universidad de Murcia in its series Annals of Computational Economics with number 4698.

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Length: 33
Date of creation: Jun 2009
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Handle: RePEc:mur:wpaper:4698

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Related research
Keywords: exchange rates; monetary union; pass-through; panel cointegration;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
R23 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Ramón María-Dolores, 2008. "Exchange rate pass-through in new Member States and candidate countries of the EU," Banco de España Working Papers 0822, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  2. Maurice Obstfeld, 2002. "Inflation-Targeting, Exchange-Rate Pass-Through, and Volatility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 102-107, May. [Downloadable!]
  3. Devereux, Michael B. & Engel, Charles, 2002. "Exchange rate pass-through, exchange rate volatility, and exchange rate disconnect," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 913-940, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. J. McCarthy, 1999. "Pass-through of exchange rates and import prices to domestic inflation in some industrialised economies," BIS Working Papers 79, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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