Time-varying exchange rate pass-through: experiences of some industrial countries
AbstractThis paper estimates exchange rate pass-through of six major industrial countries using a time-varying parameter with stochastic volatility model. Exchange rate pass-through is divided into impacts of exchange rate fluctuations to import prices (first-stage pass-through) and those of import price movements to consumer prices (second-stage pass-through). The paper finds that both stages of pass-through have declined over time for all the sample countries. The decline in second-stage pass-through is associated with the emergence of the low and stable inflation environment as well as a rise in import penetration, while the relationship to the inflation environment is weak for first-stage pass-through.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 202.
Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2006
Date of revision:
exchange rate pass-through; impacts of commodity prices; time-varying parameter; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; stochastic volatility;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
- F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
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