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The International Role of the Dollar and Trade Balance Adjustment

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  • Linda S. Goldberg
  • Cédric Tille

Abstract

The pattern of international trade adjustment is affected by the continuing international role of the dollar and related evidence on exchange rate pass-through into prices. This paper argues that a depreciation of the dollar would have asymmetric effects on flows between the United States and its trading partners. With low exchange rate pass-through to U.S. import prices and high exchange rate pass-through to the local prices of countries consuming U.S. exports, the effect of dollar depreciation on real trade flows is dominated by an adjustment in U.S. export quantities, which increase as U.S. goods become cheaper in the rest of the world. Real U.S. imports are affected less because U.S. prices are more insulated from exchange rate movements — pass-through is low and dollar invoicing is high. In relation to prices, the effects on the U.S. terms of trade are limited: U.S. exporters earn the same amount of dollars for each unit shipped abroad, and U.S. consumers do not encounter more expensive imports. Movements in dollar exchange rates also affect the international trade transactions of countries invoicing some of their trade in dollars, even when these countries are not transacting directly with the United States.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 12495.

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Date of creation: Aug 2006
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12495

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Coudert, Virginie & Couharde, Cecile, 2007. "Real equilibrium exchange rate in China is the renminbi undervalued?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 568-594, August.
  2. Jose Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2006. "Pass-through of exchange rates to consumption prices: what has changed and why," Staff Reports 261, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  3. Shin-ichi Fukuda & Yoshifumi Kon, 2007. "Liquidity Risk Aversion, Debt Maturity, and Current Account Surpluses: A Theory and Evidence from East Asia," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-489, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  4. Hermann Remsperger & Adalbert Winkler, 2009. "Welchen Einfluss hat der Wechselkurs auf die internationale Rolle von US-Dollar und Euro?," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 10(1), pages 21-38, 02.
  5. Linda Goldberg, 2011. "The international role of the dollar: Does it matter if this changes?," Staff Reports 522, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

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