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Pass-Through of Exchange Rates to Consumption Prices: What Has Changed and Why?

In: International Financial Issues in the Pacific Rim: Global Imbalances, Financial Liberalization, and Exchange Rate Policy (NBER-EASE Volume 17)

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  • Jose Manuel Campa
  • Linda S. Goldberg

Abstract

In this paper, we use cross-county and time series evidence to argue that retail price sensitivity to exchange rates may have increased over the past decade. This finding applies to traded goods, as well as to non-traded goods. We highlight three reasons for changing pass through at the level of retail prices of goods. First, pass through may have declined at the level of import prices, but the evidence is mixed over types of goods and countries. Second, there has been a large expansion of imported input use across sectors. This means that the costs of imported goods as well as home tradable goods have heightened sensitivity to import prices and exchange rates. The final channel we consider is whether there have been changing sector expenditures on distribution services, with the direction of change negatively correlated with pass through into final consumption prices. We find that this channel, which has been a means of insulating consumption prices from import content and exchange rates, has not systematically changed in recent years. The balance of effects weighs in favor of increased sensitivity of consumption prices to exchange rates, even if exchange-rate pass-through into import prices has declined for some types of goods.

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This chapter was published in:

  • Takatoshi Ito & Andrew K. Rose, 2008. "International Financial Issues in the Pacific Rim: Global Imbalances, Financial Liberalization, and Exchange Rate Policy (NBER-EASE Volume 17)," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_08-1.
    This item is provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Chapters with number 6982.

    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:6982

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    References

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    1. Gust, Christopher & Leduc, Sylvain & Sheets, Nathan, 2009. "The adjustment of global external balances: Does partial exchange-rate pass-through to trade prices matter?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 173-185, November.
    2. Rauch, James E., 1999. "Networks versus markets in international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 7-35, June.
    3. Rebecca Hellerstein & Deirdre Daly & Christina Marsh, 2006. "Have U.S. import prices become less responsive to changes in the dollar?," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 12(Sep).
    4. Bernhofen, Daniel M. & Xu, Peng, 2000. "Exchange rates and market power: evidence from the petrochemical industry," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 283-297, December.
    5. Pinelopi K. Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1996. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," NBER Working Papers 5862, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Goldberg, Pinelopi Koujianou & Verboven, Frank, 2001. "The Evolution of Price Dispersion in the European Car Market," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(4), pages 811-48, October.
    7. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca, 2003. "Macroeconomics of International Price Discrimination," CEPR Discussion Papers 3710, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Jeffrey A. Frankel & David C. Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 2005. "Slow Passthrough Around the World: A New Import for Developing Countries?," NBER Working Papers 11199, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Charles Engel, 1995. "Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," NBER Working Papers 5394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Robert C. Feenstra, 1998. "Integration of Trade and Disintegration of Production in the Global Economy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 31-50, Fall.
    11. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2002. "Why Do Consumer Prices React less than Import Prices to Exchange Rates ?," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 02.18, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
    12. José Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 679-690, November.
    13. Bruce A. Blonigen & Stephen E. Haynes, 2002. "Antidumping Investigations and the Pass-Through of Antidumping Duties and Exchange Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1044-1061, September.
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    15. Mario Marazzi & Nathan Sheets & Robert J. Vigfusson & Jon Faust & Joseph Gagnon & Jaime Marquez & Robert F. Martin & Trevor Reeve & John Rogers, 2005. "Exchange rate pass-through to U.S. import prices: some new evidence," International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 833, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Gil-Pareja, Salvador, 2003. "Pricing to market behaviour in European car markets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(6), pages 945-962, December.
    17. Feenstra, Robert C., 1989. "Symmetric pass-through of tariffs and exchange rates under imperfect competition: An empirical test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 25-45, August.
    18. Rebecca Hellerstein, 2004. "Who bears the cost of a change in the exchange rate? The case of imported beer," Staff Reports 179, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    19. Goldberg, Linda S. & Campa, Jose M., 2006. "Distribution margins, imported inputs, and the insensitivity of the CPI to exchange rates," IESE Research Papers D/625, IESE Business School.
    20. Joseph E. Gagnon & Jane Ihrig, 2001. "Monetary policy and exchange rate pass-through," International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 704, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    21. Linda S. Goldberg & Cédric Tille, 2006. "The International Role of the Dollar and Trade Balance Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 12495, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Gron, Anne & Swenson, Deborah L, 1996. "Incomplete Exchange-Rate Pass-Through and Imperfect Competition: The Effect of Local Production," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 71-76, May.
    23. Jane E. Ihrig & Mario Marazzi & Alexander D. Rothenberg, 2006. "Exchange-rate pass-through in the G-7 countries," International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 851, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    24. Giovanni P. Olivei, 2002. "Exchange rates and the prices of manufacturing products imported into the United States," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Q 1, pages 3 - 18.
    25. Marazzi, Mario & Sheets, Nathan, 2007. "Declining exchange rate pass-through to U.S. import prices: The potential role of global factors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 924-947, October.
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    Cited by:
    1. Martin D. D. Evans, 2012. "Exchange-Rate Dark Matter," IMF Working Papers 12/66, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Bonnet, Céline & Réquillart, Vincent, 2011. "Tax incidence with strategic firms on the soft drink market," TSE Working Papers 11-233, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Jul 2012.
    3. Zhao, Huan & Xiaodong, Du & Hennessy, David A., 2011. "Pass-Through in United States Beef Cattle Prices: A Test of Ricardian Rent Theory," Staff General Research Papers 32095, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    4. Forte, Antonio, 2009. "The pass-through effect: a twofold analysis," MPRA Paper 16527, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Kerstin Stahn, 2011. "Changes in Import Pricing Behaviour: Evidence for Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 231(4), pages 522-545, August.
    6. Delatte, Anne-Laure & López-Villavicencio, Antonia, 2012. "Asymmetric exchange rate pass-through: Evidence from major countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 833-844.
    7. Andrés González & Hernán Rincón & Norberto Rodríguez, . "La transmisión de los choques a la tasa de cambio sobre la inflación de los bienes importados en presencia de asimetrías," Borradores de Economia 532, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. Jinbin Wang & Nan Li, 2010. "Exchange rate pass-through: The case of China," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 356-374, September.
    9. Jiang, Jiadan & Kim, David, 2013. "Exchange rate pass-through to inflation in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 900-912.
    10. Till Dannewald & Lutz Hildebrandt, 2008. "A Brand Specific Investigation of International Cost Shock Threats on Price and Margin with a Manufacturer-Wholesaler-Retailer Model," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-070, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    11. repec:got:cegedp:133 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Garcia-Cebro, Juan A. & Varela-Santamaría, Ramón, 2011. "The international transmission of monetary shocks across developed countries: The role of imported raw materials," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1791-1813.
    13. Baki Demirel & Baris Alpaslan & Emre Guneser Bozdag, 2013. "Do Exchange Rates Affect Inflation? Evidence from Emerging Market Economies," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum 1318, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    14. Paul R. Bergin & Robert C. Feenstra, 2007. "Pass-through of Exchange Rates and Competition Between Floaters and Fixers," NBER Working Papers 13620, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Airaudo, Marco & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2012. "Interest rate rules, endogenous cycles, and chaotic dynamics in open economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 1566-1584.
    16. Berner, Eike & Birg, Laura, 2012. "Retailers and Consumers: The pass-through of import price changes," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 133, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    17. Andrés González & Hernán Rincóm & Norberto Rodríguez, 2008. "La transmisión de los choques a la tasa de cambio sobre la inflación," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 005089, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    18. Stahn, Kerstin, 2009. "Changes in import pricing behaviour: the case of Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,14, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    19. Li-gang Liu & Andrew Tsang, 2008. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Inflation in Hong Kong," Working Papers 0802, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.

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