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Pass-through of exchange rates to consumption prices: what has changed and why

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  • Jose Manuel Campa
  • Linda S. Goldberg

Abstract

In this paper, we use cross-country and time-series evidence to argue that retail price sensitivity to exchange rates may have increased over the past decade. This finding applies to traded goods as well as to non-traded goods. We highlight three reasons for the change in pass-through into the retail prices of goods. First, pass-through may have declined at the level of import prices, but the evidence is mixed over types of goods and countries. Second, there has been a large expansion of imported input use across sectors, meaning that the costs of imported goods as well as home-tradable goods have heightened sensitivity to import prices and exchange rates. Finally, we consider whether there have been changing sectoral expenditures on distribution services, with the direction of change negatively correlated with pass-through into final consumption prices. We find that this channel, which has been a means of insulating consumption prices from import content and exchange rates, has not systematically changed in recent years. On balance, these effects support increased sensitivity of consumption prices to exchange rates, even if exchange rate pass-through into import prices has declined for some types of goods.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 261.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:261

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Keywords: Foreign exchange rates ; Prices ; Imports - Prices;

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References

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  1. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca, 2003. "Macroeconomics of International Price Discrimination," CEPR Discussion Papers 3710, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Jose Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2006. "Distribution margins, imported inputs, and the sensitivity of the CPI to exchange rates," Staff Reports 247, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  3. Frankel, Jeffrey & Parsley, David & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2005. "Slow Passthrough Around the World: A New Import for Developing Countries?," Working Paper Series rwp05-016, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Airaudo, Marco & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2012. "Interest rate rules, endogenous cycles, and chaotic dynamics in open economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 1566-1584.
  2. Martin D. D. Evans, 2012. "Exchange-Rate Dark Matter," Working Papers gueconwpa~12-12-01, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
  3. Huan Zhao & Xiaodong Du & David Hennessy, 2011. "Pass-through in United States beef cattle prices: a test of Ricardian rent theory," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 497-508, April.
  4. Forte, Antonio, 2009. "The pass-through effect: a twofold analysis," MPRA Paper 16527, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Andrés González & Hernán Rincón & Norberto Rodríguez, . "La transmisión de los choques a la tasa de cambio sobre la inflación de los bienes importados en presencia de asimetrías," Borradores de Economia 532, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  6. Till Dannewald & Lutz Hildebrandt, 2008. "A Brand Specific Investigation of International Cost Shock Threats on Price and Margin with a Manufacturer-Wholesaler-Retailer Model," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-070, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  7. Berner, Eike & Birg, Laura, 2012. "Retailers and Consumers: The pass-through of import price changes," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 133, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  8. Garcia-Cebro, Juan A. & Varela-Santamaría, Ramón, 2011. "The international transmission of monetary shocks across developed countries: The role of imported raw materials," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1791-1813.
  9. Andrés González & Hernán Rincóm & Norberto Rodríguez, 2008. "La transmisión de los choques a la tasa de cambio sobre la inflación," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 005089, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  10. Berner, Eike & Birg, Laura, 2012. "Retailers and Consumers: The pass-through of import price changes," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 133, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  11. Paul R. Bergin & Robert C. Feenstra, 2009. "Pass-Through of Exchange Rates and Competition between Floaters and Fixers," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(s1), pages 35-70, 02.
  12. Delatte, Anne-Laure & López-Villavicencio, Antonia, 2012. "Asymmetric exchange rate pass-through: Evidence from major countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 833-844.
  13. Li-gang Liu & Andrew Tsang, 2008. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Inflation in Hong Kong," Working Papers 0802, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
  14. Jinbin Wang & Nan Li, 2010. "Exchange rate pass-through: The case of China," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 356-374, September.
  15. Baki Demirel & Baris Alpaslan & Emre Guneser Bozdag, 2013. "Do Exchange Rates Affect Inflation? Evidence from Emerging Market Economies," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1318, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  16. Bonnet, Céline & Réquillart, Vincent, 2011. "Tax incidence with strategic firms on the soft drink market," TSE Working Papers 11-233, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Jul 2012.
  17. Kerstin Stahn, 2011. "Changes in Import Pricing Behaviour: Evidence for Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 231(4), pages 522-545, August.
  18. Jiang, Jiadan & Kim, David, 2013. "Exchange rate pass-through to inflation in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 900-912.
  19. Stahn, Kerstin, 2009. "Changes in import pricing behaviour: the case of Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,14, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.

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