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The internationalization of the dollar and trade balance adjustment

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Author Info
Linda Goldberg
Cedric Tille

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Abstract

The pattern of international trade adjustment is affected by the continuing international role of the dollar and related evidence on exchange rate pass-through to prices. This paper argues that a depreciation of the dollar would have asymmetric effects on flows between the United States and its trading partners. With low exchange rate pass-through to U.S. import prices and high exchange rate pass-through to the local prices of countries consuming U.S. exports, the effect of dollar depreciation on real trade flows is dominated by an adjustment in U.S. export quantities, which increase as U.S. goods become cheaper in the rest of the world. Real U.S. imports are affected less because U.S. prices are more insulated from exchange rate movements-pass-through is low and dollar invoicing is high. In relation to prices, the effects on the U.S. terms of trade are limited: U.S. exporters earn the same amount of dollars for each unit shipped abroad, and U.S. consumers do not encounter more expensive imports. Movements in dollar exchange rates also affect the international trade transactions of countries invoicing some of their trade in dollars, even when these countries are not transacting directly with the United States.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 255.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:255

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Keywords: Foreign exchange rates Dollar American Exports Imports - Prices International trade

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  3. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel & CÈdric Tille, 2003. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through and the Welfare Effects of the Euro," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(1), pages 223-242, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Campa, José Manuel & Goldberg, Linda S & González Mìnguez, Jose Manuel, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Import Prices in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 5347, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2000. "New directions for stochastic open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 117-153, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Richard Portes & Hélène Rey, 1998. "The emergence of the euro as an international currency," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 13(26), pages 305-343, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Shabtai Donnenfeld & Alfred Haug, 2003. "Currency Invoicing in International Trade: an Empirical Investigation," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(2), pages 332-345, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Hartmann, Philipp, 1998. "The Currency Denomination of World Trade after European Monetary Union," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 424-454, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Ariel T. Burstein & Joao C. Neves & Sergio Rebelo, 2000. "Distribution Costs and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics During Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilizations," RCER Working Papers 473, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER). [Downloadable!]
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  11. José Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 679-690, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Paul R. Krugman, 1979. "Vehicle Currencies And the Structure Of International Exchange," NBER Working Papers 0333, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "A Theory of the Currency Denomination of International Trade," Working Papers 01.07, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Harald Hau & William Killeen & Michael Moore, 2002. "How has the euro changed the foreign exchange market?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 17(34), pages 149-192, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Rebecca Hellerstein, 2004. "Who bears the cost of a change in the exchange rate? The case of imported beer," Staff Reports 179, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  16. Giovannini, Alberto, 1988. "Exchange rates and traded goods prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 45-68, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Friberg, Richard, 1998. "In which currency should exporters set their prices?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 59-76, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Rey, Helene, 2001. "International Trade and Currency Exchange," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 68(2), pages 443-64, April.
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  20. Maurice Obstfeld., 2001. "International Macroeconomics: Beyond the Mundell-Fleming Model," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C01-121, University of California at Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Christopher Gust & Nathan Sheets, 2007. "The adjustment of global external imbalances: does partial exchange rate pass-through to trade prices matter?," International Finance Discussion Papers 850, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  24. Jane E. Ihrig & Mario Marazzi & Alexander D. Rothenberg, 2006. "Exchange-rate pass-through in the G-7 countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 851, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  26. Cedric Tille, 2000. ""Beggar-thy-neighbor" or "beggar-thyself"? the income effect of exchange rate fluctuations," Staff Reports 112, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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