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On the Determinants of Exporters' Currency Pricing: History vs. Expectations

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Author Info
Shin-ichi Fukuda (Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo)
Masanori Ono (Faculty of Economics, Fukushima University)

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Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to investigate why the choice of invoice currency under exchange rate uncertainty depends not only on expectations but also on history. The analysis is motivated by the fact that the U.S. dollar has historically been the dominant vehicle currency in developing countries. The theoretical analysis is based on an open economy model of monopolistic competition. When the market is competitive enough, the exporting firms tend to set their prices not to deviate from those of the competitors. As a result, a coordination failure can lead the third currency to be a less efficient equilibrium invoice currency. The role of expectations is important in selecting the equilibrium in the static framework. However, in the dynamic model with staggered price-setting, the role of history becomes another key determinant of the equilibrium currency pricing. The role of history may dominate the role of expectations when the firms are myopic, particularly in the competitive local market. It also becomes dominant in the staggered price setting when a small fraction of the new price setters are backward-looking. The result suggests the importance of history in explaining why the firm tends to choose the US dollar as vehicle currency.

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Paper provided by CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo in its series CIRJE F-Series with number CIRJE-F-442.

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Length: 32pages
Date of creation: Oct 2006
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Handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2006cf442

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  2. Shabtai Donnenfeld & Alfred Haug, 2003. "Currency Invoicing in International Trade: an Empirical Investigation," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(2), pages 332-345, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Frankel, Jeffrey & Parsley, David & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2005. "Slow Passthrough Around the World: A New Import for Developing Countries?," Working Paper Series rwp05-016, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Magee, Stephen P & Rao, Ramesh K S, 1980. "Vehicle and Nonvehicle Currencies in International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(2), pages 368-73, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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