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Pass through of exchange rates to consumption prices: What has changed and why?

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  • Campa, Jose M.

    ()
    (IESE Business School)

  • Goldberg, Linda S.

    (Bank of New York)

Abstract

In this paper, we use cross-county and time series evidence to argue that retail price sensitivity to exchange rates may have increased over the past decade. This finding applies to traded goods, as well as to non-traded goods. We highlight three reasons for changing pass through at the level of retail prices of goods. First, pass through may have declined at the level of import prices, but the evidence is mixed over types of goods and countries. Second, there has been a large expansion of imported input use across sectors. This means that the costs of imported goods as well as home tradable goods have heightened sensitivity to import prices and exchange rates. The final channel we consider is whether there have been changing sector expenditures on distribution services, with the direction of change negatively correlated with pass through into final consumption prices. We find that this channel, which has been a means of insulating consumption prices from import content and exchange rates, has not systematically changed in recent years. The balance of effects weighs in favor of increased sensitivity of consumption prices to exchange rates, even if exchange-rate pass-through into import prices has declined for some types of goods.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by IESE Business School in its series IESE Research Papers with number D/653.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 11 Sep 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ebg:iesewp:d-0653

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Postal: IESE Business School, Av Pearson 21, 08034 Barcelona, SPAIN
Web page: http://www.iese.edu/
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Keywords: Exchange rate; pass through; import prices; distribution margins; consumer prices; imported inputs;

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References

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  1. Campa, José Manuel & Goldberg, Linda S, 2006. "Distribution Margins, Imported Inputs and the Insensitivity of the CPI to Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 5650, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  7. Marazzi, Mario & Sheets, Nathan, 2007. "Declining exchange rate pass-through to U.S. import prices: The potential role of global factors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 924-947, October.
  8. Linda S. Goldberg & Cédric Tille, 2006. "The International Role of the Dollar and Trade Balance Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 12495, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Li-gang Liu & Andrew Tsang, 2008. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Inflation in Hong Kong," Working Papers 0802, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
  2. Paul R. Bergin & Robert C. Feenstra, 2009. "Pass-Through of Exchange Rates and Competition between Floaters and Fixers," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(s1), pages 35-70, 02.
  3. Bonnet, Céline & Réquillart, Vincent, 2011. "Tax incidence with strategic firms on the soft drink market," TSE Working Papers 11-233, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Jul 2012.
  4. Forte, Antonio, 2009. "The pass-through effect: a twofold analysis," MPRA Paper 16527, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Berner, Eike & Birg, Laura, 2012. "Retailers and Consumers: The pass-through of import price changes," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 133, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  6. Andrés González & Hernán Rincóm & Norberto Rodríguez, 2008. "La transmisión de los choques a la tasa de cambio sobre la inflación," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 005089, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  7. Zhao, Huan & Xiaodong, Du & Hennessy, David A., 2011. "Pass-Through in United States Beef Cattle Prices: A Test of Ricardian Rent Theory," Staff General Research Papers 36023, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  8. Martin D. D. Evans, 2012. "Exchange-Rate Dark Matter," Working Papers gueconwpa~12-12-01, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
  9. Berner, Eike & Birg, Laura, 2012. "Retailers and Consumers: The pass-through of import price changes," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 133, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  10. Airaudo, Marco & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2012. "Interest rate rules, endogenous cycles, and chaotic dynamics in open economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 1566-1584.
  11. Jiang, Jiadan & Kim, David, 2013. "Exchange rate pass-through to inflation in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 900-912.
  12. Baki Demirel & Baris Alpaslan & Emre Guneser Bozdag, 2013. "Do Exchange Rates Affect Inflation? Evidence from Emerging Market Economies," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1318, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  13. Till Dannewald & Lutz Hildebrandt, 2008. "A Brand Specific Investigation of International Cost Shock Threats on Price and Margin with a Manufacturer-Wholesaler-Retailer Model," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-070, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  14. Andrés González & Hernán Rincón & Norberto Rodríguez, . "La transmisión de los choques a la tasa de cambio sobre la inflación de los bienes importados en presencia de asimetrías," Borradores de Economia 532, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  15. Kerstin Stahn, 2011. "Changes in Import Pricing Behaviour: Evidence for Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 231(4), pages 522-545, August.
  16. Stahn, Kerstin, 2009. "Changes in import pricing behaviour: the case of Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,14, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  17. Delatte, Anne-Laure & López-Villavicencio, Antonia, 2012. "Asymmetric exchange rate pass-through: Evidence from major countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 833-844.
  18. Garcia-Cebro, Juan A. & Varela-Santamaría, Ramón, 2011. "The international transmission of monetary shocks across developed countries: The role of imported raw materials," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1791-1813.
  19. Jinbin Wang & Nan Li, 2010. "Exchange rate pass-through: The case of China," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 356-374, September.

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