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Hedge Your Costs: Exchange Rate Risk and Endogenous Currency Invoicing

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  • Novy, Dennis

    (Department of Economics, University of Warwick)

Abstract

The choice of invoicing currency for trade is crucial for the international transmission of macroeconomic policy. This paper develops a three-country model that endogenizes the choice of invoicing currency and that allows for a share of firms' costs to be denominated in foreign currency, consistent with the empirical evidence on the high degree of pass-through to import prices. Invoicing decisions are driven by firms' desire to hedge costs but also by exchange rate volatility and currency comovements. The model is tested empirically with a data set that spans ten currencies and 24 reporting countries, confirming the importance of currency comovements for the decision to invoice in vehicle currency. The findings also imply that if the U.S. share of world output continues to fall, other currencies will increasingly replace the U.S. dollar as an international vehicle currency.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Warwick, Department of Economics in its series The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) with number 765.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:765

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Keywords: Invoicing Currency ; Exchange Rate Risk ; Hedging;

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References

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  1. Shabtai Donnenfeld & Alfred Haug, 2003. "Currency Invoicing in International Trade: an Empirical Investigation," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(2), pages 332-345, 05.
  2. Catherine L. Mann, 1986. "Prices, profit margins, and exchange rates," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Jun, pages 366-379.
  3. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca, 2005. "A macroeconomic model of international price discrimination," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 129-155, September.
  4. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel & Peter E. Storgaard, 2002. "Endogenous Exchange Rate Pass-Through When Nominal Prices are Set in Advance," Working Papers 212002, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  5. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2003. "Why do Consumer Prices React Less than Import Prices to Exchange Rates?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3702, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Linda S. Goldberg, 2005. "Trade invoicing in the accession countries: are they suited to the Euro?," Staff Reports 222, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  7. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 2000. "Exchange rate dynamics in a model of pricing-to-market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 215-244, February.
  8. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2005. "A theory of the currency denomination of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 295-319, December.
  9. Campa, José Manuel & Goldberg, Linda S, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 4391, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. H Rey, 1997. "International Trade and Currency Exchange," CEP Discussion Papers dp0322, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  11. Jonathan McCarthy, 2007. "Pass-Through of Exchange Rates and Import Prices to Domestic Inflation in Some Industrialized Economies," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 511-537, Fall.
  12. Goldberg, Linda S. & Tille, Cédric, 2008. "Vehicle currency use in international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 177-192, December.
  13. Rauch, James E., 1999. "Networks versus markets in international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 7-35, June.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Linda Goldberg & Cédric Tille, 2013. "A bargaining theory of trade invoicing and pricing," Staff Reports 611, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  2. Goldberg, Linda S. & Tille, Cédric, 2008. "Vehicle currency use in international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 177-192, December.
  3. Linda S. Goldberg & Cédric Tille, 2009. "Micro, Macro, and Strategic Forces in International Trade Invoicing," NBER Working Papers 15470, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Linda Goldberg, 2011. "The international role of the dollar: Does it matter if this changes?," Staff Reports 522, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

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