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Hedge Your Costs: Exchange Rate Risk and Endogenous Currency Invoicing

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  • Novy, Dennis

    (Department of Economics, University of Warwick)

Abstract

The choice of invoicing currency for trade is crucial for the international transmission of macroeconomic policy. This paper develops a three-country model that endogenizes the choice of invoicing currency and that allows for a share of firms' costs to be denominated in foreign currency, consistent with the empirical evidence on the high degree of pass-through to import prices. Invoicing decisions are driven by firms' desire to hedge costs but also by exchange rate volatility and currency comovements. The model is tested empirically with a data set that spans ten currencies and 24 reporting countries, confirming the importance of currency comovements for the decision to invoice in vehicle currency. The findings also imply that if the U.S. share of world output continues to fall, other currencies will increasingly replace the U.S. dollar as an international vehicle currency.

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File URL: http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/workingpapers/2006/twerp_765.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Warwick, Department of Economics in its series The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) with number 765.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:765

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Keywords: Invoicing Currency ; Exchange Rate Risk ; Hedging;

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References

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  1. Linda S. Goldberg, 2005. "Trade invoicing in the accession countries: are they suited to the Euro?," Staff Reports 222, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  2. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel & Peter E. Storgaard, 2003. "Endogenous Exchange Rate Pass-through when Nominal Prices are Set in Advance," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0304, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
  3. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Why Do Consumer Prices React Less Than Import Prices to Exchange Rates?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(2-3), pages 662-670, 04/05.
  4. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2005. "A theory of the currency denomination of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 295-319, December.
  5. Jonathan McCarthy, 2000. "Pass-through of exchange rates and import prices to domestic inflation in some industrialized economies," Staff Reports 111, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  6. Goldberg, Linda S. & Tille, Cédric, 2008. "Vehicle currency use in international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 177-192, December.
  7. James E. Rauch, 1996. "Networks versus Markets in International Trade," NBER Working Papers 5617, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Rey, Hélène, 1999. "International Trade and Currency Exchange," CEPR Discussion Papers 2226, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 2000. "Exchange rate dynamics in a model of pricing-to-market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 215-244, February.
  10. Shabtai Donnenfeld & Alfred Haug, 2003. "Currency Invoicing in International Trade: an Empirical Investigation," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(2), pages 332-345, 05.
  11. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca, 2005. "A macroeconomic model of international price discrimination," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 129-155, September.
  12. Catherine L. Mann, 1986. "Prices, profit margins, and exchange rates," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Jun, pages 366-379.
  13. José Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 679-690, November.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Linda Goldberg, 2011. "The international role of the dollar: Does it matter if this changes?," Staff Reports 522, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  2. Linda S. Goldberg & Cédric Tille, 2013. "A Bargaining Theory of Trade Invoicing and Pricing," NBER Working Papers 18985, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Linda S. Goldberg & Cédric Tille, 2009. "Micro, Macro, and Strategic Forces in International Trade Invoicing," NBER Working Papers 15470, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Goldberg, Linda S. & Tille, Cédric, 2008. "Vehicle currency use in international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 177-192, December.

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