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Emerging Floaters : Pass-Throughs and (Some) New Commodity Currencies

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  • Kohlscheen, E

    (Economics Department, University of Warwick.)

Abstract

In spite of early skepticism on the merits of floating exchange rate regimes in emerging markets, 8 of the 25 largest countries in this group have now had a floating exchange rate regime for more than a decade. Using parsimonious VAR specifications covering the period of floating exchange rates, this study computes the dynamics of exchange rate pass-throughs to consumer price indices. We find that pass-throughs have typically been moderate even though emerging floaters have seen considerable nominal and real exchange rate volatilities. Previous studies that set out to estimate exchange rate pass-throughs ignored changes in policy regimes, making them vulnerable to the Lucas critique. We find that, within the group of emerging floaters, estimated pass-throughs are higher for countries with greater nominal exchange rate volatilities and that trade more homogeneous goods. These findings are consistent with the pass-through model of Floden and Wilander (2006) and earlier findings by Campa and Goldberg (2005), respectively. Furthermore, we find that the Indonesian Rupiah, the Thai Baht and possibly the Mexican Peso are commodity currencies, in the sense that their real exchange rates are cointegrated with international commodity prices.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Warwick, Department of Economics in its series The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) with number 905.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:905

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  1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Taylor, John B., 2000. "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1389-1408, June.
  3. Gregory, Allan W & Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 555-60, August.
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  5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Emanuel Kohlscheen, 2009. "Emerging Floaters: Pass-Throughs and (Some) New Commodity Currencies," WEF Working Papers 0049, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London.
  7. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
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  22. J. McCarthy, 1999. "Pass-through of exchange rates and import prices to domestic inflation in some industrialised economies," BIS Working Papers 79, Bank for International Settlements.
  23. Michele Ca’ Zorzi & Elke Hahn & Marcelo Sánchez, 2007. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Emerging Markets," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(4), pages 84-102, November.
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  28. Floden, Martin & Wilander, Fredrik, 2006. "State dependent pricing, invoicing currency, and exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 178-196, September.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Lin, Po-Chun & Wu, Chung-Shu, 2012. "Exchange rate pass-through in deflation: The case of Taiwan," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 101-111.
  2. Kohlscheen, Emanuel, 2010. "Emerging floaters: Pass-throughs and (some) new commodity currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1580-1595, December.
  3. Emanuel Kohlscheen, 2012. "Order Flow and the Real: Indirect Evidence of the Effectiveness of Sterilized Interventions," Working Papers Series 273, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  4. Benjamin M. Tabak & Marcelo Yoshio Takami & J. M. C. Rocha & Daniel O. Cajueiro, 2011. "Directed Clustering Coefficient as a Measure of Systemic Risk in Complex Banking Networks," Working Papers Series 249, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  5. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "The Relationship between the Foreign Exchange Regime and Macroeconomic Performance in Eastern Africa," IMF Working Papers 12/148, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Adriana Soares Sales & João Barata Ribeiro Blanco Barroso, 2012. "Coping with a Complex Global Environment: a Brazilian perspective on emerging market issues," Working Papers Series 292, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  7. Pascal Towbin & Sebastian Weber, 2011. "Limits of Floating Exchange Rates: the Role of Foreign Currency Debt and Import Structure," IMF Working Papers 11/42, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Emanuel Kohlscheen, 2013. "Long-Run Determinants of the Brazilian Real: a closer look at commodities," Working Papers Series 314, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  9. Emanuel Kohlscheen, 2011. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on the Exchange Rate: puzzling evidence from three emerging economies," Working Papers Series 259, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

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