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Re-examining the exchange rate pass-through into import prices using non-linear estimation techniques: Threshold cointegration

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  • Al-Abri, Almukhtar S.
  • Goodwin, Barry K.

Abstract

We document a significant threshold cointegrating relationship among effective nominal exchange rates and import prices. Using quarterly data for five industries of 16 OECD countries, we find that the degree of pass-through improves dramatically from the 50% average documented in the literature once threshold effects are recognized. The results of our threshold cointegration model show that import prices respond faster and by a larger extent to nominal exchange rate shocks than is the case for more conventional models. These findings give empirical support to the hypothesis that an equilibrium rate of pass-through exists (e.g. [Bacchetta, P., & Van Wincoop, E. (2005). A Theory of the currency denomination of international trade, Journal of International Economics 67, 295-319; Devereux, M., Engel, C., & Storgaard, P. (2004). Endogenous exchange rate pass-through when nominal prices are set in advance, Journal of International Economics 63(2), 263-291]).

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Review of Economics & Finance.

Volume (Year): 18 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 142-161

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Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:18:y:2009:i:1:p:142-161

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165

Related research

Keywords: Exchange rate pass-through Non-linear estimation Threshold cointegration Equilibrium pass-through OECD;

References

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  1. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel & Peter E. Storgaard, 2003. "Endogenous Exchange Rate Pass-through when Nominal Prices are Set in Advance," NBER Working Papers 9543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2005. "A theory of the currency denomination of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 295-319, December.
  3. Giovanni P. Olivei, 2002. "Exchange rates and the prices of manufacturing products imported into the United States," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Q 1, pages 3 - 18.
  4. Feenstra, Robert C. & Gagnon, Joseph E. & Knetter, Michael M., 1996. "Market share and exchange rate pass-through in world automobile trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-2), pages 187-207, February.
  5. Kadiyali, Vrinda, 1997. "Exchange rate pass-through for strategic pricing and advertising: An empirical analysis of the U.S. photographic film industry," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 437-461, November.
  6. Hansen, B.E., 1991. "Inference when a Nuisance Parameter is Not Identified Under the Null Hypothesis," RCER Working Papers 296, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  7. Goldberg, Pinelopi Koujianou, 1995. "Product Differentiation and Oligopoly in International Markets: The Case of the U.S. Automobile Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 891-951, July.
  8. Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997. "Threshold Cointegration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-45, August.
  9. Pippenger, Michael K & Goering, Gregory E, 1993. "A Note on the Empirical Power of Unit Root Tests under Threshold Processes," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(4), pages 473-81, November.
  10. Webber, Anthony G., 2000. "Newton's gravity law and import prices in the Asia Pacific," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 71-87, January.
  11. Patricia S. Pollard & Cletus C. Coughlin, 2004. "Size matters: asymmetric exchange rate pass-through at the industry level," Working Papers 2003-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  12. Linda S. Goldberg, 2004. "Industry-specific exchange rates for the United States," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 1-16.
  13. Pinelopi K. Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1996. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," NBER Working Papers 5862, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Catherine L. Mann, 1986. "Prices, profit margins, and exchange rates," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Jun, pages 366-379.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Florian Verheyen, 2013. "Exchange Rate Pass-through into German Import Prices – A Disaggregated Perspective," Ruhr Economic Papers 0427, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  2. García-Solanes, José & Torrejón-Flores, Fernando, 2010. "Devaluation and pass-through in indebted and risky economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 36-45, January.
  3. Goodwin, Barry K. & Holt, Matthew T. & Prestemon, Jeffrey P., 2012. "Nonlinear exchange rate pass-through in timber products: the case of oriented strand board in Canada and the United States," MPRA Paper 40834, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chiu, Yi-Bin, 2012. "The impact of real income on insurance premiums: Evidence from panel data," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 246-260.
  5. Herger Nils, 2013. "Market Entries and Exits and the Nonlinear Behaviour of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," Working Papers 13.08, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  6. Lin, Po-Chun & Wu, Chung-Shu, 2012. "Exchange rate pass-through in deflation: The case of Taiwan," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 101-111.
  7. Huang, Alex YiHou & Peng, Sheng-Pen & Li, Fangjhy & Ke, Ching-Jie, 2011. "Volatility forecasting of exchange rate by quantile regression," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 591-606, October.
  8. Gregory Goering & Michael Pippenger, 2009. "Exchange Rates and Concurrent Leasing and Selling in Durable-Goods Monopoly," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 37(2), pages 187-196, June.
  9. Ramón María-Dolores, 2008. "Exchange rate pass-through in new Member States and candidate countries of the EU," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0822, Banco de Espa�a.
  10. Önel, Gülcan & Goodwin, Barry K., 2013. "A Non-parametric Approach to Modeling Exchange Rate Pass-through in Basic Commodity Markets," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150319, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  11. Aleem, Abdul & Lahiani, Amine, 2014. "A threshold vector autoregression model of exchange rate pass-through in Mexico," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 24-33.

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