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Nonlinear Mechanisms of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through: a Phillips curve model with threshold for Brazil

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Author Info
Arnildo da Silva Correa
André Minella

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Abstract

This paper investigates the presence of nonlinear mechanisms of pass-through from the exchange rate to inflation in Brazil. In particular, it estimates a Phillips curve with a threshold for the pass-through. The paper examines whether the short-run magnitude of the pass-through is affected by the business cycle, direction and magnitude of exchange rate changes, and exchange rate volatility. The results indicate that the short-run pass-through is higher when the economy is growing faster, when the exchange rate depreciates above some threshold and when exchange rate volatility is lower. These results have important implications for monetary policy and are possibly related to pricing-to-market behavior, menu costs of price adjustment and uncertainty about the degree of persistence in exchange rate movements.

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File URL: http://www.bcb.gov.br/pec/wps/ingl/wps122.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department in its series Working Papers Series with number 122.

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Date of creation: Nov 2006
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Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:122

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Web page: http://www.bcb.gov.br/?english

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Eduardo J. A. Lima & Felipe Luduvice & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2006. "Forecasting Interest Rates: an application for Brazil," Working Papers Series 120, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  2. Victorio Y. T. Chu & Márcio I. Nakane, 2001. "Credit Channel without the LM Curve," Working Papers Series 20, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  3. Eduardo A. S. Rodrigues & Victorio Chu & Leonardo S. Alencar & Tony Takeda, 2006. "O Efeito da Consignação em Folha nas Taxas de Juros dos Empréstimos Pessoais," Working Papers Series 108, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  4. Theodore M. Barnhill & Marcos R. Souto & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2006. "An Analysis of Off-Site Supervision of Banks' Profitability, Risk and Capital Adequacy: a portfolio simulation approach applied to brazilian banks," Working Papers Series 117, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Reginaldo P. Nogueira Junior & Miguel Leon-Ledesma, 2008. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through Into Inflation: The Role of Asymmetries and NonLinearities," Studies in Economics 0801, Department of Economics, University of Kent. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2008-7-16.


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