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An Analysis of Off-Site Supervision of Banks' Profitability, Risk and Capital Adequacy: a portfolio simulation approach applied to brazilian banks

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Theodore M. Barnhill
Marcos R. Souto
Benjamin M. Tabak

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Abstract

In most countries, the role of off-site bank supervision involves continuous monitoring of profitability, risk and capital adequacy. The objective of this article is to demonstrate the value of bringing together advanced modeling techniques with data on banks' assets and liabilities and credit worthiness. More specifically, we apply an integrated market and credit risk simulation methodology to a group of six hypothetical banks. We show the capacity of the methodology: (i) to simulate credit transition probabilities of default close to the historical values estimated by the Central Bank of Brazil; and (ii) to simulate asset and equity returns that are unbiased estimators of average historical returns and standard deviations. Our results also indicate that: (i) a sharp reduction in the interest rate spreads of Brazilian banks reduces bank profitability and increases the probability of default; and (ii) most banks have low probability of bankruptcy. Our position is that utilization of forward looking risk evaluation methodologies in databases, such as those developed by the Central Bank of Brazil, has significant potential as an instrument of indirect supervision to identify potential risks before they materialize.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department in its series Working Papers Series with number 117.

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Date of creation: Sep 2006
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Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:117

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Web page: http://www.bcb.gov.br/?english

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  2. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. " A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Scholes, Myron & Williams, Joseph, 1977. "Estimating betas from nonsynchronous data," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 309-327, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Jarrow, Robert A. & Turnbull, Stuart M., 2000. "The intersection of market and credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 271-299, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Jarrow, Robert A & Lando, David & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1997. "A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 481-523.
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  9. Franks, Julian R & Torous, Walter N, 1989. " An Empirical Investigation of U.S. Firms in Reorganization," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(3), pages 747-69, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Eduardo José Araújo Lima & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2007. "Building Confidence Intervals with Block Bootstraps for the Variance Ratio Test of Predictability," Working Papers Series 151, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  2. Sergio Rubens Stancato de Souza & Benjamin M. Tabak & Daniel O. Cajueiro, 2007. "Long-Range Dependence in Exchange Rates: the case of the European Monetary System," Working Papers Series 131, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Solange Gouvea, 2007. "Price Rigidity in Brazil: Evidence from CPI Micro Data," Working Papers Series 143, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  4. Marcos M. Abe & Eui J. Chang & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2007. "Forecasting Exchange Rate Density using Parametric Models: The Case of Brazil," Working Papers Series 138, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  5. Flávia Mourão Graminho, 2006. "A Neoclassical Analysis of the Brazilian "Lost-Decades"," Working Papers Series 123, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  6. Marcio M. Janot & Márcio G. P. Garcia & Walter Novaes, 2008. "Balance Sheet Effects in Currency Crises: Evidence from Brazil," Working Papers Series 162, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Aloísio P. Araújo & José Valentim M. Vicente, 2006. "Contagion, Bankruptcy and Social Welfare Analysis in a Financial Economy with Risk Regulation Constraint," Working Papers Series 118, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  8. Claudio Henrique da Silveira Barbedo & Eduardo Facó Lemgruber, 2007. "The Effect of Bid-Ask Prices on Brazilian Options Implied Volatility: A Case Study of Telemar Call Options," Working Papers Series 144, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  9. Roberta Blass Staub & Geraldo da Silva e Souza, 2007. "A Probabilistic Approach for Assessing the Significance of Contextual Variables in Nonparametric Frontier Models: an Application for Brazilian Banks," Working Papers Series 150, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  10. Jaqueline Terra Moura Marins & Eduardo Saliby, 2007. "Credit Risk Monte Carlos Simulation Using Simplified Creditmetrics' Model: the joint use of importance sampling and descriptive sampling," Working Papers Series 132, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  11. Eduardo J. A. Lima & Felipe Luduvice & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2006. "Forecasting Interest Rates: an application for Brazil," Working Papers Series 120, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  12. Marcelo Y. Takami & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2007. "Evaluation of Default Risk for The Brazilian Banking Sector," Working Papers Series 135, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  13. Arnildo da Silva Correa & André Minella, 2006. "Nonlinear Mechanisms of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through: a Phillips curve model with threshold for Brazil," Working Papers Series 122, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  14. Ricardo Schechtman, 2007. "Joint Validation of Credit Rating PDs under Default Correlation," Working Papers Series 149, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  15. Gilneu F. A. Vivan & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2007. "A New Proposal for Collection and Generation of Information on Financial Institutions' Risk: the case of derivatives," Working Papers Series 133, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  16. Osmani T. Guillen & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2008. "Characterizing the Brazilian Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers Series 158, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Barnhill, Theodore M. & Souto, Marcos Rietti, 2008. "Systemic bank risk in Brazil: an assessment of correlated market, credit, sovereign and inter-bank risk in an environment with stochastic volatilities and correlations," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2008,13, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  18. Barbara Alemanni & José Renato Haas Ornelas, 2008. "Behavior and Effects of Equity Foreign Investors on Emerging Markets," Working Papers Series 159, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  19. Benjamin M. Tabak, 2006. "The Dynamic Relationship between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: evidence for Brazil," Working Papers Series 124, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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