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Aggregating Credit and Market Risk: The Impact of Model Specification

Author

Listed:
  • Andre Lucas

    (VU University Amsterdam, and Duisenberg school of finance)

  • Bastiaan Verhoef

    (Royal Bank of Scotland)

Abstract

We investigate the effect of model specification on the aggregation of (correlated) market and credit risk. We focus on the functional form linking systematic credit risk drivers to default probabilities. Examples include the normal based probit link function for typical structural models, or the exponential (Poisson) link function for typical reduced form models. We first show analytically how model specification impacts 'diversification benefits' for aggregated market and credit risk. The specification effect can lead to Value-at-Risk (VaR) reductions in the range of 3 percent to 47 percent, particularly at high confidence level VaRs. We also illustrate the effects using a fully calibrated empirical model for US data. The empirical effects corroborate our analytic results.

Suggested Citation

  • Andre Lucas & Bastiaan Verhoef, 2012. "Aggregating Credit and Market Risk: The Impact of Model Specification," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-057/2/DSF36, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20120057
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Božović, Miloš & Ivanović, Jelena, 2017. "Adverse risk interaction: An integrated approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 67-74.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    risk aggregation; credit risk; market risk; link function; diversification; reduced form models; structural models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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