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Business and default cycles for credit risk

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Author Info
André Lucas
Siem Jan Koopman

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Abstract

Various economic theories are available to explain the existence of credit and default cycles. There remains empirical ambiguity, however, as to whether these cycles coincide. Recent papers suggest by their empirical research set-up that they do, or at least that defaults and credit spreads tend to co-move with macroeconomic variables. If true, this is important for credit risk management as well as for regulation and systemic risk management. In this paper, we use 1933-1997 US data on real GDP, credit spreads and business failure rates to shed new light on the empirical evidence. We use a multivariate unobserved components framework to disentangle credit and business cycles. We distinguish two types of cycles in the data, corresponding to periods of around 6 and 11-16 years, respectively. Cyclical co-movements between GDP and business failures mainly arise at the longer frequency. At the higher frequency of 6 years, co-cyclicality is less clear-cut. We also show that spreads reveal a positive and negative co-cyclicality with failure rates and GDP, respectively. This pattern disappears, however, if we concentrate on the post World War II period. We comment on the implications of our findings for credit risk management. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/jae.833
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Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 20 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 311-323
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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:20:y:2005:i:2:p:311-323

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References listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Florian Heiss, 2008. "Sequential numerical integration in nonlinear state space models for microeconometric panel data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 373-389. [Downloadable!]
  2. Petr Jakubík, 2007. "Credit Risk and the Finnish Economy," AUCO Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 254-285, November. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Siem Jan Koopman & André Lucas & Robert Daniels, 2005. "A Non-Gaussian Panel Time Series Model for Estimating and Decomposing Default Risk," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-060/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Chew Lian Chua & G. C. Lim & Penelope Smith, 2008. "A Bayesian Simulation Approach to Inference on a Multi-State Latent Factor Intensity Model," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2008n16, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
  6. Gatfaoui Hayette, 2004. "Idiosyncratic Risk, Systematic Risk and Stochastic Volatility: An Implementation of Merton’s Credit Risk Valuation," Finance 0404004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  7. cipollini, andrea & missaglia, giuseppe, 2007. "Dynamic Factor analysis of industry sector default rates and implication for Portfolio Credit Risk Modelling," MPRA Paper 3582, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Petr JAKUBÍK, 2007. "Macroeconomic Environment and Credit Risk (in English)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(1-2), pages 60-78, March. [Downloadable!]
  9. Georges Dionne & Pascal François & Olfa Maalaoui, 2009. "Detecting Regime Shifts in Corporate Credit Spreads," Cahiers de recherche 0929, CIRPEE. [Downloadable!]
  10. Olfa Maalaoui & Georges Dionne & Pascal François, 2009. "Credit Spread Changes within Switching Regimes," Cahiers de recherche 0905, CIRPEE. [Downloadable!]
  11. Bruneau, C. & De Bandt, O., 2008. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Corporate Financial Fragility," Documents de Travail 226, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
  12. Siem Jan Koopman & Roman Kraeussl & Andre Lucas & Andre Monteiro, 2006. "Credit Cycles and Macro Fundamentals," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-023/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Roland Meeks, 2006. "Credit Shocks and Cycles: a Bayesian Calibration Approach," Economics Papers 2006-W11, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Diana Barro & Antonella Basso, 2008. "Credit contagion in a network of firms with spatial interaction," Working Papers 186, Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Venice. [Downloadable!]
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