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A survey of cyclical effects in credit risk measurement model

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Author Info
Linda Allen (Zicklin School of Business, Baruch College, CUNY)
Anthony Saunders (New York University - Leonard N. Stern School of Business)
Abstract

We survey both academic and proprietary models to examine how macroeconomic and systematic risk effects are incorporated into measures of credit risk exposure. Many models consider the correlation between the probability of default (PD) and cyclical factors. Few models adjust loss rates (loss given default) to reflect cyclical effects. We find that the possibility of systematic correlation between PD and LGD is also neglected in currently available models.

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Paper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 126.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2003
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Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:126

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  1. Siem Jan Koopman & André Lucas, 2003. "Business and Default Cycles for Credit Risk," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-062/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 09 Jan 2003. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Siem Jan Koopman & André Lucas & Robert J. Daniels, 2005. "A Non-Gaussian Panel Time Series Model for Estimating and Decomposing Default Risk," DNB Working Papers 055, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Simona Castellani & Chiara Pederzoli & Costanza Torricelli, 2008. "Indebtedness, macroeconomic conditions and banks’ loan losses: evidence from Italy," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 08014, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Facoltà di Economia "Marco Biagi". [Downloadable!]
  4. Bojan Markovic, . "Bank capital channels in the monetary transmission mechanism," Bank of England working papers 313, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  5. Frits Bijleveld & Jacques Commandeur & Phillip Gould & Siem Jan Koopman, 2005. "Model-based Measurement of Latent Risk in Time Series with Applications," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-118/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  6. André Lucas & Pieter Klaassen, 2003. "Discrete versus Continuous State Switching Models for Portfolio Credit Risk," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-075/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 30 Sep 2003. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Sanjiv Das & Darrell Duffie & Nikunj Kapadia & Leandro Saita, 2006. "Common Failings: How Corporate Defaults are Correlated," NBER Working Papers 11961, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Hayette GATFAOUI, 2005. "From Fault Tree to Credit Risk Assessment: A Case Study," Econometrics 0509002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  9. Mathias Drehmann & Steffen Sorensen & Marco Stringa, 2007. "Integrating credit and interest rate risk: A theoretical framework and an application to banks' balance sheets," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 151, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  10. Pesola, Jarmo, 2007. "Financial fragility, macroeconomic shocks and banks’ loan losses: evidence from Europe," Research Discussion Papers 15/2007, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  11. Virolainen , Kimmo, 2004. "Macro stress testing with a macroeconomic credit risk model for Finland," Research Discussion Papers 18/2004, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  12. Mark Illing & Graydon Paulin, 2004. "The New Basel Capital Accord and the Cyclical Behaviour of Bank Capital," Working Papers 04-30, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
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