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An Empirical Comparison of Default Swap Pricing Models

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  • Houweling, P.
  • Vorst, A.C.F.

Abstract

Abstract: In this paper we compare market prices of credit default swaps with model prices. We show that a simple reduced form model with a constant recovery rate outperforms the market practice of directly comparing bonds' credit spreads to default swap premiums. We find that the model works well for investment grade credit default swaps, but only if we use swap or repo rates as proxy for default-free interest rates. This indicates that the government curve is no longer seen as the reference default-free curve. We also show that the model is insensitive to the value of the assumed recovery rate. Keywords: credit default swaps, credit derivatives, credit risk, default risk, default-free interest rates

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam in its series ERIM Report Series Research in Management with number ERS-2002-23-F&A.

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Date of creation: 27 Feb 2002
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Handle: RePEc:ems:eureri:172

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Related research

Keywords: credit default swaps; credit derivatives; credit risk; default risk; default-free interest rates; empirical models; market prices;

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Cited by:
  1. C.J.M. Kool, 2006. "Financial stability in European banking : the role of common factors," Working Papers 06-13, Utrecht School of Economics.
  2. Haibin Zhu, 2004. "An empirical comparison of credit spreads between the bond market and the credit default swap market," BIS Working Papers 160, Bank for International Settlements.
  3. Didier Cossin & Tomas Hricko & Daniel Aunon-Nerin & Zhijiang Huang, 2002. "Exploring for the Determinants of Credit Risk in Credit Default Swap Transaction Data: Is Fixed-Income Markets’ Information Suffcient to Evaluate Credit Risk?," FAME Research Paper Series rp65, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
  4. Lekkos, Ilias, 2007. "Modelling multiple term structures of defaultable bonds with common and idiosyncratic state variables," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 783-817, December.
  5. Abel Elizalde, 2006. "Credit Risk Models I: Default Correlation In Intensity Models," Working Papers wp2006_0605, CEMFI.
  6. Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2004. "Informational Efficiency of Credit Default Swap and Stock Markets: The Impact of Credit Rating Announcements," CEPR Discussion Papers 4250, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Mehari Mekonnen Akalu, 2002. "Measuring and Ranking Value Drivers," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-043/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  8. Roberto Blanco & Simon Brennan & Ian W Marsh, 2004. "An empirical analysis of the dynamic relationship between investment-grade bonds and credit default swaps," Bank of England working papers 211, Bank of England.
  9. Martin Scheicher, 2003. "Credit Derivatives - Overview and Implications for Monetary Policy and Financial Stability," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 5, pages 96-111.
  10. Nicholas Apergis & Emmanuel Mamatzakis, 2012. "What Are the Driving Factors behind the Rise of Spreads and CDSs of Euro-area Sovereign Bonds? A FAVAR Model for Greece and Ireland," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_720, Levy Economics Institute.
  11. Hull, John & Predescu, Mirela & White, Alan, 2004. "The relationship between credit default swap spreads, bond yields, and credit rating announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2789-2811, November.
  12. Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2004. "Informational efficiency of credit default swap and stock markets: The impact of credit rating announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2813-2843, November.
  13. da Silva, Paulo Pereira & Rebelo, Paulo Tomaz & Afonso, Cristina, 2013. "Tail dependence of financial stocks and CDS markets: Evidence using copula methods and simulation-based inference," Economics Discussion Papers 2013-52, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  14. Linda Allen & Anthony Saunders, 2003. "A survey of cyclical effects in credit risk measurement model," BIS Working Papers 126, Bank for International Settlements.
  15. Hoi Wong & Tsz Wong, 2007. "Reduced-form Models with Regime Switching: An Empirical Analysis for Corporate Bonds," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 229-253, September.
  16. Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2004. "The comovement of credit default swap, bond and stock markets: An empirical analysis," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/20, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  17. Frank X. Zhang, 2003. "What did the credit market expect of Argentina default? Evidence from default swap data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-25, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  18. Linda Allen & Anthony Saunders, 2004. "Incorporating Systemic Influences Into Risk Measurements: A Survey of the Literature," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 161-191, October.
  19. Jaewon Choi & Or Shachar, 2013. "Did liquidity providers become liquidity seekers?," Staff Reports 650, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

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