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A macro stress test model of credit risk for the Brazilian banking sector

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Author Info

  • Vazquez, Francisco
  • Tabak, Benjamin M.
  • Souto, Marcos

Abstract

This paper proposes a model to conduct macro stress test of credit risk for the banking sector based on scenario analysis. We employ an original bank-level data set that splits bank credit portfolios in 21 granular categories, covering household and corporate loans. The results corroborate the presence of a strong procyclical behavior of credit quality, and show a robust negative relationship between the logistic transformation of non-performing loans (NPLs) and GDP growth, with a lag response of up to three quarters. The results also indicate that the procyclical behavior of loan quality varies across credit types. This is novel in the literature and suggests that banks with larger exposures to highly procyclical credit types and economic sectors would tend to undergo sharper deterioration in the quality of their credit portfolios during an economic downturn. Lack of sufficient portfolio granularity in macro stress testing fails to capture these effects and thus introduces a source of bias that tends to underestimate the tail losses stemming from the riskier banks in a system.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Stability.

Volume (Year): 8 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 69-83

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Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:8:y:2012:i:2:p:69-83

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jfstabil

Related research

Keywords: Banking system; Stress tests; Financial crisis; Credit risk;

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References

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  1. Tabak, Benjamin M. & Staub, Roberta B., 2007. "Assessing financial instability: The case of Brazil," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 188-202, June.
  2. Jan Willem van den End & Marco Hoeberichts & Mostafa Tabbae, 2006. "Modelling Scenario Analysis and Macro Stress-testing," DNB Working Papers 119, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  3. Blank, Sven & Buch, Claudia M. & Neugebauer, Katja, 2009. "Shocks at large banks and banking sector distress: the Banking Granular Residual," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2009,04, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  4. Pesola, Jarmo, 2001. "The role of macroeconomic shocks in banking crises," Research Discussion Papers 6/2001, Bank of Finland.
  5. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
  6. Rodriguez, Adolfo & Trucharte, Carlos, 2007. "Loss coverage and stress testing mortgage portfolios: A non-parametric approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 342-367, December.
  7. Kexue Liu & Jean Salvati & Renzo G. Avesani & Alin Mirestean, 2006. "Review and Implementation of Credit Risk Models of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP)," IMF Working Papers 06/134, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Antonella Foglia, 2009. "Stress Testing Credit Risk: A Survey of Authorities' Aproaches," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(3), pages 9-45, September.
  9. Patricia Tecles & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2010. "Determinants of Bank Efficiency: the case of Brazil," Working Papers Series 210, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
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  11. Marco Sorge, 2004. "Stress-testing financial systems: an overview of current methodologies," BIS Working Papers 165, Bank for International Settlements.
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  13. Virolainen , Kimmo, 2004. "Macro stress testing with a macroeconomic credit risk model for Finland," Research Discussion Papers 18/2004, Bank of Finland.
  14. Castrén, Olli & Dées, Stéphane & Zaher, Fadi, 2010. "Stress-testing euro area corporate default probabilities using a global macroeconomic model," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 64-78, June.
  15. Rodolphe Blavy, 2006. "Assessing Banking Sector Soundness in a Long-Term Framework: The Case of Venezuela," IMF Working Papers 06/225, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Staub, Roberta B. & da Silva e Souza, Geraldo & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2010. "Evolution of bank efficiency in Brazil: A DEA approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 204-213, April.
  17. Cardarelli, Roberto & Elekdag, Selim & Lall, Subir, 2011. "Financial stress and economic contractions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 78-97, June.
  18. Coffinet, J. & Lin, S. & Martin, C., 2009. "Stress testing French banks' income subcomponents," Working papers 242, Banque de France.
  19. Klaus Duellmann & Martin Erdelmeier, 2009. "Crash Testing German Banks," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(3), pages 139-175, September.
  20. Theodore M. Barnhill & Marcos R. Souto & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2006. "An Analysis of Off-Site Supervision of Banks' Profitability, Risk and Capital Adequacy: a portfolio simulation approach applied to brazilian banks," Working Papers Series 117, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  21. Sorge, Marco & Virolainen, Kimmo, 2006. "A comparative analysis of macro stress-testing methodologies with application to Finland," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 113-151, June.
  22. Illing, Mark & Liu, Ying, 2006. "Measuring financial stress in a developed country: An application to Canada," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 243-265, October.
  23. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  24. Glenn Hoggarth & Andrew Logan & Lea Zicchino, 2005. "Macro stress tests of UK banks," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 392-408 Bank for International Settlements.
  25. Krenn, Gerald & Puhr, Claus & Boss, Michael & Schwaiger, Markus, 2007. "Stress Testing the Exposure of Austrian Banks in Central and Eastern Europe," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 13.
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Cited by:
  1. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2011. "Macroprudential Regulation and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Working Papers Series 254, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  2. Benjamin M. Tabak & Marcelo Yoshio Takami & J. M. C. Rocha & Daniel O. Cajueiro, 2011. "Directed Clustering Coefficient as a Measure of Systemic Risk in Complex Banking Networks," Working Papers Series 249, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  3. Ahlem Selma Messai & Fathi Jouini, 2013. "Micro and Macro Determinants of Non-performing Loan," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(4), pages 852 - 860.
  4. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2013. "Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability: A Perspective from the Developing World," Working Papers Series 324, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

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