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The Dynamic Relationship between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: evidence for Brazil

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  • Benjamin M. Tabak

Abstract

This paper studies the dynamic relationship between stock prices and exchange rates in the Brazilian economy. We use recently developed unit root and cointegration tests, which allow endogenous breaks, to test for a long run relationship between these variables. We performed linear, and nonlinear causality tests after considering both volatility and linear dependence. We found that there is no long-run relationship, but there is linear Granger causality from stock prices to exchange rates, in line with the portfolio approach: stock prices lead exchange rates with a negative correlation. Furthermore, we found evidence of nonlinear Granger causality from exchange rates to stock prices, in line with the traditional approach: exchange rates lead stock prices. We believe these findings have practical applications for international investors

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File URL: http://www.bcb.gov.br/pec/wps/ingl/wps124.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department in its series Working Papers Series with number 124.

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Date of creation: Nov 2006
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Publication status: Published in International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance, Vol. 9, no. 8, pp. 1377-1396 (2006)
Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:124

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Web page: http://www.bcb.gov.br/?english

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  1. Pedro H. Albuquerque, 2000. "An Information Theory Approach to the Aggregation of Log-Linear Models," Working Papers Series 4, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  2. Araújo, Aloísio Pessoa de & Leon, Márcia Saraiva, 2003. "Speculative attacks on debts and optimum currency area: A welfare analysis," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 514, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  3. Arnildo da Silva Correa & André Minella, 2006. "Nonlinear Mechanisms of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through: a Phillips curve model with threshold for Brazil," Working Papers Series 122, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  4. Benjamin Miranda Tabak & Solange Maria Guerra, 2002. "Stock Returns and Volatility," Working Papers Series 54, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  5. Emanuel-Werner Kohlscheen, 2000. "Estimating Exchange Market Pressure and Intervention Activity," Working Papers Series 9, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  6. Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Sergio Afonso Lago Alves, 2003. "Medium-Size Macroeconomic Model for the Brazilian Economy," Working Papers Series 64, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  7. Márcio I. Nakane & Leonardo S. Alencar & Fabio Kanczuk, 2006. "Demand for Bank Services and Market Power in Brazilian Banking," Working Papers Series 107, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  8. Sergio A. Lago Alves & Mirta N. S. Bugarin, 2006. "The Role of Consumer's Risk Aversion on Price Rigidity," Working Papers Series 121, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  9. Eduardo Lundberg, 2000. "Monetary Policy and Banking Supervision Functions on the Central Bank," Working Papers Series 2, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  10. Francisco Marcos R. Figueiredo & Thaís Porto Ferreira, 2002. "Os Preços Administrados e a Inflação no Brasil," Working Papers Series 59, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  11. Fajardo, J. & Farias, A., 2003. "Generalized Hyperbolic Distributions and Brazilian Data," Finance Lab Working Papers flwp_57, Finance Lab, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  12. Sergio Rubens Stancato de Souza & Benjamin Miranda Tabak & Daniel O. Cajueiro, 2006. "Investigação da Memória de Longo Prazo na Taxa de Câmbio no Brasil," Working Papers Series 113, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  13. Eduardo J. A. Lima & Felipe Luduvice & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2006. "Forecasting Interest Rates: an application for Brazil," Working Papers Series 120, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  14. Araújo, Aloísio Pessoa de & Leon, Márcia Saraiva, 2002. "Speculative Attacks on Debts, Dollarization and Optimum Currency Areas," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 446, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  15. Leonardo Soriano de Alencar & Márcio I. Nakane, 2003. "Real Balances in the Utility Function: Evidence for Brazil," Working Papers Series 68, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  16. Marcelle Chauvet, 2000. "Leading Indicators of Inflation for Brazil," Working Papers Series 7, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  17. Alexandre A. Tombini & Sergio A. Lago Alves, 2006. "The Recent Brazilian Disinflation Process and Costs," Working Papers Series 109, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  18. Eui Jung Chang & Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Joanílio Rodolpho Teixeira, 2002. "Macroeconomic Coordination and Inflation Targeting in a Two-Country Model," Working Papers Series 50, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  19. Marta Areosa & Waldyr Areosa, 2006. "The Inequality Channel of Monetary Transmission," Working Papers Series 114, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  20. Ricardo Schechtman & Valéria Salomão Garcia & Sergio Mikio Koyama & Guilherme Cronemberger Parente, 2004. "Credit Risk Measurement and the Regulation of Bank Capital and Provision Requirements in Brazil - A Corporate Analysis," Working Papers Series 91, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  21. Alan Cosme Rodrigues da Silva & João Maurício de Souza Moreira & Myriam Beatriz Eiras das Neves, 2006. "Avaliação de Modelos de Exigência de Capital para Risco de Mercado do Cupom Cambial," Working Papers Series 111, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
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Cited by:
  1. Suleyman Hilmi Kal & Ferhat Arslaner & Nuran Arslaner, 2014. "Bond Markets, Stock Markets and Exchange Rates: A Dynamic Relationship," Working Paper 18, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul.

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