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Finance and the Business Cycle: a Kalman Filter Approach with Markov Switching

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  • Ryan A. Compton
  • Jose Ricardo da Costa e Silva

Abstract

This paper combines two popular econometric tools, the dynamic factor model and the Markov-Switching model, to consider three segments of the financial system- the stock market, debt, and money- and their contribution to US business cycles over the past four decades. The dynamic factor model identifies a composite factor index for each financial segment, and using Markov-switching models by Hamilton (1989) and Filardo (1994), this paper then estimates the effect of each segment index on business cycle behaviour. This reexamination of the finance-business cycle link provides results that prove strongest for the effect of stock market movements on business cycles.

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File URL: http://www.bcb.gov.br/pec/wps/ingl/wps97.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department in its series Working Papers Series with number 97.

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Date of creation: Aug 2005
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Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:97

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Web page: http://www.bcb.gov.br/?english

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References

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  1. Mark Gertler & R. Glenn Hubbard, 1988. "Financial factors in business fluctuations," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 33-78.
  2. Coe, Patrick J, 2002. "Financial Crisis and the Great Depression: A Regime Switching Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 76-93, February.
  3. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2002. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Working Papers 9127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Martin S. Eichenbaum & Kenneth J. Singleton, 1986. "Do Equilibrium Real Business Cycle Theories Explain Post-War U.S. Business Cycles?," NBER Working Papers 1932, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Barbara Alemanni & José Renato Haas Ornelas, 2006. "Herding Behavior by Equity Foreign Investors on Emerging Markets," Working Papers Series 125, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  2. Flávia Mourão Graminho, 2006. "A Neoclassical Analysis of the Brazilian "Lost-Decades"," Working Papers Series 123, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  3. Solange Gouvea, 2007. "Price Rigidity in Brazil: Evidence from CPI Micro Data," Working Papers Series 143, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  4. Gilneu F. A. Vivan & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2007. "A New Proposal for Collection and Generation of Information on Financial Institutions' Risk: the case of derivatives," Working Papers Series 133, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  5. Sergio Rubens Stancato de Souza & Benjamin M. Tabak & Daniel O. Cajueiro, 2007. "Long-Range Dependence in Exchange Rates: the case of the European Monetary System," Working Papers Series 131, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  6. Arnildo da Silva Correa & André Minella, 2006. "Nonlinear Mechanisms of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through: a Phillips curve model with threshold for Brazil," Working Papers Series 122, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  7. Aloísio P. Araújo & José Valentim M. Vicente, 2006. "Contagion, Bankruptcy and Social Welfare Analysis in a Financial Economy with Risk Regulation Constraint," Working Papers Series 118, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  8. Jaqueline Terra Moura Marins & Eduardo Saliby & Joséte Florencio do Santos, 2006. "Out-Of-The_Money Monte Carlo Simulation Option Pricing: the join use of Importance Sampling and Descriptive Sampling," Working Papers Series 116, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  9. Angelo Marsiglia Fasolo, 2006. "Interdependence and Contagion: an Analysis of Information Transmission in Latin America's Stock Markets," Working Papers Series 112, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  10. Maria da Glória D. S. Araújo & Mirta Bugarin & Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Jose Ricardo C. Silva, 2006. "The Effect of Adverse Supply Shocks on Monetary Policy and Output," Working Papers Series 103, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  11. Marta Areosa & Waldyr Areosa, 2006. "The Inequality Channel of Monetary Transmission," Working Papers Series 114, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  12. Marcelo Y. Takami & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2007. "Evaluation of Default Risk for The Brazilian Banking Sector," Working Papers Series 135, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  13. Ricardo Schechtman, 2007. "Joint Validation of Credit Rating PDs under Default Correlation," Working Papers Series 149, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  14. Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Márcio I. Nakane, 2006. "Comparing equilibrium real interest rates: different approaches to measure Brazilian rates," Working Papers Series 101, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  15. Ana Carla A. Costa & João M. P. de Mello, 2006. "Judicial Risk and Credit Market Performance: Micro Evidence from Brazil Payroll Loans," Working Papers Series 102, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  16. Márcio I. Nakane & Leonardo S. Alencar & Fabio Kanczuk, 2006. "Demand for Bank Services and Market Power in Brazilian Banking," Working Papers Series 107, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  17. Alexandre A. Tombini & Sergio A. Lago Alves, 2006. "The Recent Brazilian Disinflation Process and Costs," Working Papers Series 109, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

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