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Bank lending and economic activity in Japan: did "financial factors" contribute to the recent downturn?

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  • Allan D. Brunner
  • Steven B. Kamin

Abstract

In this paper, we examine the role of "financial factors" in Japan and attempt to gauge their recent impact on the Japanese economy. First, we find that proxies for financial factors enter significantly in behavioral equations for loan standards, loan demand and aggregate demand, although these proxies explain only a small amount of the variation in those variables. Second, there is some, albeit inconclusive, evidence that balance-sheet problems of households and firms contributed to Japan's recent recession. We find that exogenous declines in equity prices contributed significantly to the decline in loans and economic activity, although part of this influence appears to be operating through traditional wealth effects. In addition, loan demand shocks, which could reflect balance-sheet problems not captured by our model, account for much of the remainder of the shortfall in loans and some of the shortfall in economic activity. Finally, we also find some evidence that an exogenous contraction in loan supply, a "credit crunch," may have lowered output by a small degree, but only in the early phases of the recession.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 513.

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Date of creation: 1995
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:513

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Keywords: Bank loans ; Japan;

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References

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  1. Ben S. Bernanke, 1990. "On the predictive power of interest rates and interest rate spreads," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 51-68.
  2. Fama, Eugene F., 1985. "What's different about banks?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 29-39, January.
  3. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-76, June.
  4. John Ammer, 1994. "Inflation, inflation risk, and stock returns," International Finance Discussion Papers 464, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1978. "The Household Balance Sheet and the Great Depression," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(04), pages 918-937, December.
  6. Sun Bae Kim & Ramon Moreno, 1994. "Stock prices and bank lending behavior in Japan," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue feb11.
  7. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
  8. Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren, 1992. "The capital crunch in New England," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue May, pages 21-31.
  9. Simon G. Gilchrist & Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1994. "The financial accelerator and the flight to quality," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 94-18, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. French, K.R. & Poterba, J.M., 1990. "Are Japanese Stock Prices Too High?," Working papers 547, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  11. Ben Bernanke, 1990. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transnission," NBER Working Papers 3487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Hancock, Diana & Laing, Andrew J. & Wilcox, James A., 1995. "Bank capital shocks: Dynamic effects on securities, loans, and capital," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3-4), pages 661-677, June.
  13. David P. Ely & Kenneth J. Robinson, 1989. "The stock market and inflation: a synthesis of the theory and evidence," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Mar, pages 17-29.
  14. Blinder, Alan S & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1983. "Money, Credit Constraints, and Economic Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(2), pages 297-302, May.
  15. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1988. "Credit, Money, and Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 435-39, May.
  16. Stephen D. Oliner & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1994. "Is there a broad credit channel for monetary policy?," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 146, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  17. Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1994. "Monetary Policy, Business Cycles, and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(2), pages 309-40, May.
  18. Allan D. Brunner & Steven B. Kamin, 1994. "Determinants of the 1991-93 Japanese recession: evidence from a structural model of the Japanese economy," International Finance Discussion Papers 479, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  19. Steven M. Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & BRUCE C. PETERSEN, 1988. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 141-206.
  20. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1977. "What Depressed the Consumer? The Household Balance Sheet and the 1973-75 Recession," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 8(1), pages 123-174.
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Cited by:
  1. Ito, Takatoshi & Sasaki, Yuri Nagataki, 2002. "Impacts of the Basle Capital Standard on Japanese Banks' Behavior," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 372-397, September.
  2. Frömmel, Michael & Schmidt, Torsten, 2006. "Bank Lending and Asset Prices in the Euro Area," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-342, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  3. Alan Ahearne & Joseph Gagnon & Jane Haltmaier & Steve Kamin ... [et al.]., 2002. "Preventing deflation: lessons from Japan's experience in the 1990s," International Finance Discussion Papers 729, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Ramkishen S. Rajan & Reza Siregar & Iman Sugema, 2003. "Why was there a precrisis capital inflow boom in Southeast Asia?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 265-283.
  5. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Kenneth D. West, 1996. "Business Fixed Investment and the Recent Business Cycle in Japan," NBER Working Papers 5546, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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