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Evaluation of Default Risk for The Brazilian Banking Sector

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  • Marcelo Y. Takami
  • Benjamin M. Tabak

Abstract

This paper employs new methods to measure and monitor risk in the Brazilian banking sector. We prove that the option-based risk measure is negatively sensitive to interest rates. As this is an important issue for emerging market economies, the risk measures are built as deviations from mean. Additionally, the option-based indicator is compared with market-based financial fragility indicators. Results show that these indicators are useful for risk managers and regulators, especially during crisis. Furthermore, option-based methods are preferable to classify banks in periods of high distress, such as the banking crises that occurred in the early nineties in Brazil.

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File URL: http://www.bcb.gov.br/pec/wps/ingl/wps135.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department in its series Working Papers Series with number 135.

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Date of creation: May 2007
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Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:135

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Web page: http://www.bcb.gov.br/?english

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  2. Ryan A. Compton & Jose Ricardo da Costa e Silva, 2005. "Finance and the Business Cycle: a Kalman Filter Approach with Markov Switching," Working Papers Series 97, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  3. Sergio Rubens Stancato de Souza & Benjamin Miranda Tabak & Daniel O. Cajueiro, 2006. "Investigação da Memória de Longo Prazo na Taxa de Câmbio no Brasil," Working Papers Series 113, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  4. Thomas Y. Wu, 2004. "Does Inflation Targeting Reduce Inflation? An Analysis for the OECD Industrial Countries," Working Papers Series 83, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
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  7. Aloisio Araujo & Marcia Leon, 2004. "Speculative Attacks on Debts and Optimum Currency Area: A Welfare Analysis," Working Papers Series 84, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  8. Aloisio Araujo & Marcia Leon, 2002. "Speculative Attacks on Debts, Dollarization and Optimum Currency Areas," Working Papers Series 40, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  9. André Soares Loureiro & Fernando de Holanda Barbosa, 2004. "Risk Premia for Emerging Markets Bonds: Evidence from Brazilian Government Debt, 1996-2002," Working Papers Series 85, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  10. Benjamin Miranda Tabak & Solange Maria Guerra, 2002. "Stock Returns and Volatility," Working Papers Series 54, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  11. Alves, Sergio A Lago & Bugarin, Mirta N S, 2006. "The Role of Consumer's Risk Aversion on Price Rigidity," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 128, Society for Computational Economics.
  12. Pedro H. Albuquerque, 2000. "An Information Theory Approach to the Aggregation of Log-Linear Models," Working Papers Series 4, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  13. Arnildo da Silva Correa & Ronald Otto Hillbrecht, 2003. "Ciclos Internacionais de Negócios: uma Análise de Mudança de Regime Markoviano para Brasil, Argentina e Estados Unidos," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31th Brazilian Economics Meeting] b47, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  14. José Fajardo & Aquiles Farias, 2002. "Generalized Hyperbolic Distributions and Brazilian Data," Working Papers Series 52, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  15. Sergio Rubens Stancato de Souza & Benjamin M. Tabak & Daniel O. Cajueiro, 2007. "Long-Range Dependence in Exchange Rates: the case of the European Monetary System," Working Papers Series 131, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  16. Francisco Marcos R. Figueiredo & Thaís Porto Ferreira, 2002. "Os Preços Administrados e a Inflação no Brasil," Working Papers Series 59, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  17. Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Sérgio Afonso Lago Alves & Gil Riella, 2002. "Modelo Estrutural com Setor Externo: Endogenização do Prêmio de Risco e do Câmbio," Working Papers Series 42, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  18. Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Sergio Afonso Lago Alves, 2003. "Medium-Size Macroeconomic Model for the Brazilian Economy," Working Papers Series 64, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  19. Sergio A. L. Alves & Waldyr D. Areosa, 2005. "Targets and Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers Series 100, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  20. Marta Areosa & Waldyr Areosa, 2006. "The Inequality Channel of Monetary Transmission," Working Papers Series 114, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  21. Márcio I. Nakane & Leonardo S. Alencar & Fabio Kanczuk, 2006. "Demand for Bank Services and Market Power in Brazilian Banking," Working Papers Series 107, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  22. Alexandre A. Tombini & Sergio A. Lago Alves, 2006. "The Recent Brazilian Disinflation Process and Costs," Working Papers Series 109, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  23. Arnildo da Silva Correa & André Minella, 2006. "Nonlinear Mechanisms of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through: a Phillips curve model with threshold for Brazil," Working Papers Series 122, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  24. Eui Jung Chang & Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Joanílio Rodolpho Teixeira, 2002. "Macroeconomic Coordination and Inflation Targeting in a Two-Country Model," Working Papers Series 50, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  25. Alan Cosme Rodrigues da Silva & João Maurício de Souza Moreira & Myriam Beatriz Eiras das Neves, 2006. "Avaliação de Modelos de Exigência de Capital para Risco de Mercado do Cupom Cambial," Working Papers Series 111, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  26. Ricardo Schechtman, 2006. "Uma Investigação Baseada em Reamostragem sobre Requerimentos de Capital para Risco de Crédito no Brasil," Working Papers Series 127, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  27. Marcelle Chauvet, 2000. "Leading Indicators of Inflation for Brazil," Working Papers Series 7, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  28. Eduardo J. A. Lima & Felipe Luduvice & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2006. "Forecasting Interest Rates: an application for Brazil," Working Papers Series 120, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  29. Ricardo Schechtman & Valéria Salomão Garcia & Sergio Mikio Koyama & Guilherme Cronemberger Parente, 2004. "Credit Risk Measurement and the Regulation of Bank Capital and Provision Requirements in Brazil - A Corporate Analysis," Working Papers Series 91, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  30. Arnildo da Silva Correa, 2003. "Diferenças e Semelhanças entre Países da América Latina: Uma Análise de Markov Switching para os Ciclos Econômicos de Brasil e Argentina," Working Papers Series 80, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
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