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The economic performance of cities: A Markov-switching approach

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  • Owyang, Michael T.
  • Piger, Jeremy M.
  • Wall, Howard J.
  • Wheeler, Christopher H.

Abstract

This paper examines the determinants of employment growth in metro areas. To obtain growth rates, we use a Markov-switching model that separates a city's growth path into two distinct phases (high and low), each with its own growth rate. The simple average growth rate over some period is, therefore, the weighted average of the high-phase and low-phase growth rates, with the weight being the frequency of the two phases. We estimate the effects of a variety of factors separately for the high-phase and low-phase growth rates. Growth in the high phase is related to both human capital and industry mix, while growth in the low phase is related to industry mix only, specifically, the relative importance of manufacturing. Overall, our results strongly reject the notion that city-level characteristics influence employment growth equally across the phases of the business cycle.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Urban Economics.

Volume (Year): 64 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (November)
Pages: 538-550

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Handle: RePEc:eee:juecon:v:64:y:2008:i:3:p:538-550

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622905

Related research

Keywords: Growth in cities Business cycle phases;

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References

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  1. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "Has The U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based On A Markov-Switching Model Of The Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 608-616, November.
  2. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2006. "Synchronization of cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 59-79, May.
  3. Genesove, David & Mayer, Christopher, 2001. "Loss Aversion and Seller Behaviour: Evidence from the Housing Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 2813, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  6. Edward L. Glaeser, 2005. "Urban Colossus: Why is New York America's Largest City?," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2073, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
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  8. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2007. "A state-level analysis of the Great Moderation," Working Papers 2007-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  9. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, December.
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  13. Margaret McConnell & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 2000. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  14. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2005. "Business Cycle Phases in U.S. States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 604-616, November.
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  19. Edward L. Glaeser, 2005. "Urban Colossus: Why is New York America's Largest City?," NBER Working Papers 11398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  21. Engelhardt, Gary V., 2003. "Nominal loss aversion, housing equity constraints, and household mobility: evidence from the United States," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 171-195, January.
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  23. Simon, Curtis J, 1988. "Frictional Unemployment and the Role of Industrial Diversity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 103(4), pages 715-28, November.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Wall, Howard J., 2011. "The Employment Cycles of Neighboring Cities," MPRA Paper 29410, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Francis Neville & Owyang Michael T. & Sekhposyan Tatevik, 2012. "The Local Effects of Monetary Policy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(2), pages 1-38, March.
  3. Owyang, Michael T. & Piger, Jeremy & Wall, Howard J., 2010. "Discordant city employment cycles," MPRA Paper 30757, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. James D. Hamilton & Michael T. Owyang, 2011. "The Propagation of Regional Recessions," NBER Working Papers 16657, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Kristie M. Engemann & Rubén Hernández-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang, 2008. "Regional aggregation in forecasting: an application to the Federal Reserve's Eighth District," Regional Economic Development, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Oct, pages 15-29.
  6. Leora Friedberg & Michael Owyang & Anthony Webb, 2008. "Identifying Local Differences in Retirement Patterns," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2008-18, Center for Retirement Research, revised Dec 2008.
  7. Rubén Hernández-Murillo & Michael T Owyang & Margarita Rubio, 2013. "Clustered Housing Cycles," Discussion Papers 2013/02, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
  8. Ghent, Andra C. & Owyang, Michael T., 2010. "Is housing the business cycle? Evidence from US cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 336-351, May.

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