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How do changes in monetary policy affect bank lending? An analysis of Austrian bank data

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Author Info

  • Sylvia Kaufmann

    (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Studies Division, P.O. Box 61, A-1010 Vienna, Austria)

  • Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter

    (Johannes Kepler Universität Linz, Department of Applied Statistics and Econometrics, Altenberger Strasse 69, A-4040 Linz, Austria)

Abstract

Using a panel of Austrian bank data we show that the lending decisions of the smallest banks are more sensitive to interest rate changes, and that for all banks, sensitivity changes over time. We propose to estimate the groups of banks that display similar lending reactions by means of a group indicator which, after estimation, indicates each bank's classification. Additionally, we estimate a state indicator that indicates the periods during which the lending reaction differs from what we normally observe. Bayesian methods are used for estimation; a sensitivity analysis and a forecast evaluation confirm our model choice. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/jae.830
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File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca:80/jae/2006-v21.3/
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 21 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 275-305

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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:21:y:2006:i:3:p:275-305

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References

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  1. Ben Bernanke, 1990. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transnission," NBER Working Papers 3487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 1054, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia & Kaufmann, Sylvia, 2004. "Model-based Clustering of Multiple Time Series," CEPR Discussion Papers 4650, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Asea, Patrick K. & Blomberg, Brock, 1998. "Lending cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 89-128.
  5. Francesco Giavazzi, 1999. "The Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in Europe: Evidence from Banks’ Balance Sheets," Working papers 99-20, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  6. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, December.
  7. Chib, Siddhartha, 1996. "Calculating posterior distributions and modal estimates in Markov mixture models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 79-97, November.
  8. Albert, James H & Chib, Siddhartha, 1993. "Bayes Inference via Gibbs Sampling of Autoregressive Time Series Subject to Markov Mean and Variance Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 1-15, January.
  9. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
  10. G.J. De Bondt, 1999. "Banks and monetary transmission in Europe: empirical evidence," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 52(209), pages 149-168.
  11. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1978. "The Household Balance Sheet and the Great Depression," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(04), pages 918-937, December.
  12. G.J. De Bondt, 1999. "Banks and monetary transmission in Europe: empirical evidence," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 52(209), pages 149-168.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Merkl, Christian & Stolz, Stéphanie, 2006. "Banks' regulatory buffers, liquidity networks and monetary policy transmission," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2006,06, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  2. Sylvia Kaufmann & Maria Teresa Valderrama, 2004. "Modeling Credit Aggregates," Working Papers 90, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  3. Johann Burgstaller, 2010. "Bank Lending and Monetary Policy Transmission in Austria," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 230(2), pages 163-185.
  4. Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter, 2011. "Panel data analysis: a survey on model-based clustering of time series," Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 251-280, December.
  5. Sylvia Kaufmann, 2008. "Dating and forecasting turning points by Bayesian clustering with dynamic structure: A suggestion with an application to Austrian data," Working Papers 144, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).

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