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Dating and forecasting turning points by Bayesian clustering with dynamic structure: a suggestion with an application to Austrian data

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  • Sylvia Kaufmann

    (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Vienna, Austria, and University of Basel, Switzerland)

Abstract

The information contained in a large panel dataset is used to date historical turning points and to forecast future ones. We estimate groups of series with similar time series dynamics and link the groups with a dynamic structure. The dynamic structure identifies a group of leading and a group of coincident series. Robust results across data vintages are obtained when series-specific information is incorporated in the design of the prior group probability distribution. The forecast evaluation confirms that the Markov switching panel with dynamic structure performs well when compared to other specifications. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 25 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 309-344

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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:25:y:2010:i:2:p:309-344

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Cited by:
  1. Adrian Pagan & Don Harding, 2011. "Econometric Analysis and Prediction of Recurrent Events," NCER Working Paper Series 75, National Centre for Econometric Research.
  2. Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang & Özge Savascin, 2012. "An endogenously clustered factor approach to international business cycles," Working Papers 2012-014, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  3. James D. Hamilton & Michael T. Owyang, 2009. "The propagation of regional recessions," Working Papers 2009-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  4. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Interactions between eurozone and US booms and busts: A Bayesian panel Markov-switching VAR model," Working Papers 2013:17, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  5. Rubén Hernández-Murillo & Michael T Owyang & Margarita Rubio, 2013. "Clustered Housing Cycles," Discussion Papers 2013/02, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
  6. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Interactions between Eurozone and US Booms and Busts: A Bayesian Panel Markov-switching VAR Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-142/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  7. Kaufmann Sylvia, 2011. "K-state switching models with endogenous transition distributions," Working Papers 2011-13, Swiss National Bank.

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