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Forecasting industrial production and the early detection of turning points

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  • Giancarlo Bruno

    ()

  • Claudio Lupi

    ()

Abstract

In this paper we propose a simple model to forecast industrial production in Italy up to 6 months ahead. We show that the forecasts produced using the model outperform some popular forecasts as well as those stemming from an ARIMA model used as a benchmark and those from some single equation alternative models. We show how the use of these forecasts can improve the estimate of a cyclical indicator and the early detection of turning points for the manufacturing sector. This is of paramount importance for short-term economic analysis. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2004

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.

Volume (Year): 29 (2004)
Issue (Month): 3 (09)
Pages: 647-671

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Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:29:y:2004:i:3:p:647-671

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Related research

Keywords: Forecasting; VAR models; industrial production; cyclical indicators; C53; C32; E32;

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References

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  1. Bodo, G. & Golinelli, R. & Parigi, G., 2000. "Forecasting Industrial Production in the Euro Area," Papers 370, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
  2. J. Joseph Beaulieu & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1992. "Seasonal Unit Roots in Aggregate U.S. Data," NBER Technical Working Papers 0126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Giancarlo Bruno, 2001. "Seasonal Adjustment of Italian Industrial Production Index using Tramo-Seats," ISAE Working Papers 18, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Bruno Giancarlo & Lupi Claudio, 2003. "Forecasting Euro-Area Industrial Production Using (Mostly) Business Surveys Data," ISAE Working Papers 33, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
  2. Charles S. Bos & Siem Jan Koopman, 2010. "Models with Time-varying Mean and Variance: A Robust Analysis of U.S. Industrial Production," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-017/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  3. Giancarlo Bruno, 2009. "Non-linear relation between industrial production and business surveys data," ISAE Working Papers 119, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
  4. Costantini, Mauro & Pappalardo, Carmine, 2010. "A hierarchical procedure for the combination of forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 725-743, October.
  5. Guido Bulligan & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2010. "Forecasting monthly industrial production in real-time: from single equations to factor-based models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 303-336, October.
  6. Luciana Crosilla, 2006. "The seasonality of ISAE business and consumer surveys: methodological aspects and empirical evidence," ISAE Working Papers 68, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
  7. Malgarini, Marco & Margani, Patrizia & Martelli, Bianca Maria, 2005. "Re-engineering the ISAE manufacturing survey," MPRA Paper 42440, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Sylvia Kaufmann, 2010. "Dating and forecasting turning points by Bayesian clustering with dynamic structure: a suggestion with an application to Austrian data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(2), pages 309-344.
  9. Bruno Giancarlo & Edoardo Otranto, 2004. "Dating the Italian BUsiness Cycle: A Comparison of Procedures," ISAE Working Papers 41, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
  10. Bruno, Giancarlo & Otranto, Edoardo, 2008. "Models to date the business cycle: The Italian case," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 899-911, September.
  11. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:144:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Carmine Pappalardo & Gianfranco Piras, 2004. "Vector-Autoregression Approach to Forecast Italian Imports," ISAE Working Papers 42, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
  13. Fichtner, Ferdinand & Rüffer, Rasmus & Schnatz, Bernd, 2009. "Leading indicators in a globalised world," Working Paper Series 1125, European Central Bank.

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