Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Forecasting the Global Electronics Cycle with Leading Indicators: A VAR Approach

Contents:

Author Info

  • Hwee Kwan Chow

    ()
    (School of Economics and Social Sciences, Singapore Management University)

  • Keen Meng Choy

    ()
    (National University of Singapore)

Abstract

Developments in the global electronics industry are typically monitored by tracking indicators that span a whole spectrum of activities in the sector. However, these indicators invariably give mixed signals at each point in time, thereby hampering efforts at prediction. In this paper, we propose a unified framework for forecasting the global electronics cycle by constructing a VAR model that captures the economic interactions between leading indicators representing expectations, orders, inventories and prices. The ability of the indicators to presage world semiconductor sales is first demonstrated by Granger causality tests. The VAR model is then used to derive the dynamic paths of adjustment of global chip sales in response to orthogonalized shocks in each of the leading variables. These impulse response functions confirm the leading qualities of the selected indicators. Finally, out-of-sample forecasts of global chip sales are generated from a parsimonious variant of the model viz., the Bayesian VAR (BVAR), and compared with predictions from a univariate benchmark model and a bivariate model which uses a composite index of the leading indicators. An evaluation of their relative accuracy suggests that the BVAR's forecasting performance is superior to both the univariate and composite index models.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: https://mercury.smu.edu.sg/rsrchpubupload/3227/VAR.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Singapore Management University, School of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 16-2004.

as in new window
Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2004
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in SMU Economics and Statistics Working Paper Series
Handle: RePEc:siu:wpaper:16-2004

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 90 Stamford Road, Singapore 178903
Phone: 65-6828 0832
Fax: 65-6828 0833
Web page: http://www.economics.smu.edu.sg/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Email:

Related research

Keywords: Leading indicators; Global electronics cycle; VAR; Forecasting;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Bart Hobijn & Kevin J. Stiroh & Alexis Antoniades, 2003. "Taking the pulse of the tech sector: a coincident index of high-tech activity," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 9(Oct).
  2. Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Zarnowitz, Victor, 1992. "Business Cycles," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226978901, August.
  4. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
  5. Bodo, G. & Golinelli, R. & Parigi, G., 2000. "Forecasting Industrial Production in the Euro Area," Papers 370, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
  6. Veloce, William, 1996. "An evaluation of the leading indicators for the Canadian economy using time series analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 403-416, September.
  7. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
  8. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
  9. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January.
  10. Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distribution," Staff Report 93, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  11. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1995. "Lag Order and Critical Values of a Modified Dickey-Fuller Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(3), pages 411-19, August.
  12. Gonzalo Camba-Mendez & George Kapetanios & Richard J. Smith & Martin R. Weale, 2001. "An automatic leading indicator of economic activity: forecasting GDP growth for European countries," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages 37.
  13. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1994. "Error Bands for Impulse Responses," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1085, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  14. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
  15. Chong, Yock Y & Hendry, David F, 1986. "Econometric Evaluation of Linear Macro-Economic Models," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(4), pages 671-90, August.
  16. Koch, Paul D & Rasche, Robert H, 1988. "An Examination of the Commerce Department Leading-Indicator Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 6(2), pages 167-87, April.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:siu:wpaper:16-2004. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (QL THor).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.