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Forecasting Industrial Production in the Euro Area

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  • Giorgio Bodo

    (Fiat)

  • Roberto Golinelli

    (University of Bologna)

  • Giuseppe Parigi

    ()
    (Bank of Italy, Research Department)

Abstract

The creation of the Euro area has increased the importance of obtaining timely information about short-term changes in the area's real activity. In this paper we propose a number of alternative short-term forecasting models, ranging from simple ARIMA models to more complex cointegrated VAR and conditional models, to forecast the index of industrial production in the euro area. A conditional error-correction model in which the aggregate index of industrial production for the area is explained by the US industrial production index and the business confidence index from the European Commission harmonised survey on manufacturing firms achieves the best score in terms of forecasting capacity.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 370.

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Date of creation: Mar 2000
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Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_370_00

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Web page: http://www.bancaditalia.it
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  1. Baffigi, A. & Pagnini, M. & Quintiliani, F., 1999. "Industrial Districts and Local Banks: Do the Twins Ever Meet?," Papers 347, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
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