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Causality and Price Discovery: An Application of Directed Acyclic Graphs

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Author Info
Michael S. Haigh (U.S. CFTC and University of Maryland)
David A. Bessler (Texas A&M University)

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Abstract

Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAG's) and Error Correction Models (ECM's) are employed to analyze questions of price discovery between spatially separated commodity markets and the transportation market linking them together. Results from our analysis suggest these markets are highly interconnected but it is the inland commodity market that is strongly influenced by both the transportation and commodity export markets. However, the commodity markets affect the volatility of the transportation market over longer horizons. Our results suggest that transportation rates are critical in the price discovery process lending support for the recent development of exchange traded barge rate futures contracts.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by University of Chicago Press in its journal Journal of Business.

Volume (Year): 77 (2004)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 1099-1098
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Handle: RePEc:ucp:jnlbus:v:77:y:2004:i:4:p:1099-1098

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Haigh, Michael S & Holt, Matthew T, 2000. " Hedging Multiple Price Uncertainty in International Grain Trade," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, American Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 82(4), pages 881-96, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Hiro Toda & Peter Phillips, 1994. "Vector autoregression and causality: a theoretical overview and simulation study," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 259-285. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Geraci, Vincent J & Prewo, Wilfried, 1977. "Bilateral Trade Flows and Transport Costs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 59(1), pages 67-74, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Ben S. Bernanke, 1986. "Alternative Explanations of the Money-Income Correlation," NBER Working Papers 1842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Identifying restrictions of linear equations with applications to simultaneous equations and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 111-132, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Phillips, Peter C. B., 1998. "Impulse response and forecast error variance asymptotics in nonstationary VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 21-56. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Cooley, Thomas F. & Leroy, Stephen F., 1985. "Atheoretical macroeconometrics: A critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 283-308, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Goodwin, Barry K. & Grennes, Thomas & Wohlgenant, Michael K., 1990. "Testing the law of one price when trade takes time," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 21-40, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 383-97, August.
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  13. Goodwin, Barry K & Piggott, Nicholas E, 2001. " Spatial Market Integration in the Presence of Threshold Effects," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, American Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 83(2), pages 302-17, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Alessio Moneta, 2003. "Graphical Models for Structural Vector Autoregressions," LEM Papers Series 2003/07, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
  2. Ayyagari, Meghana & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Maksimovic, Vojislav, 2006. "How important are financing constraints ? The role of finance in the business environment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3820, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Babula, Ronald A. & Bessler, David A. & Reeder, John & Somwaru, Agapi, 2004. "Modeling U.S. Soy-Based Markets with Directed Acyclic Graphs and Bernanke Structural VAR Methods: The Impacts of High Soy Meal and Soybean Prices," Journal of Food Distribution Research, Food Distribution Research Society, vol. 35(03), November. [Downloadable!]
  4. Alessio Moneta, 2008. "Graphical causal models and VARs: an empirical assessment of the real business cycles hypothesis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 275-300, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Alessio Moneta & Peter Spirtes, 2005. "Graph-Based Search Procedure for Vector Autoregressive Models," LEM Papers Series 2005/14, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
  6. Power, Gabriel J. & Vedenov, Dmitry V., 2009. "The Price Shock Transmission during the 2007-2008 Commodity Bull Cycle: A Structural Vector Auto-Regression Approach to the "Chicken-or-Egg" Problem," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49538, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association. [Downloadable!]
  7. Bryant, Henry L. & Bessler, David A. & Haigh, Michael S., 2003. "Causality In Futures Markets," Working Papers 28574, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics. [Downloadable!]
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