Cointegration and Causality Analysis of World Vegetable Oil and Crude Oil Prices
AbstractBecause of the recent soaring petroleum price and growing environmental concerns, biodiesel has become an important alternative fuel. Biodiesel is the mono alky esters made from a vegetable oil, such as soybean or rapeseed oil, or sometimes from animal fats. The escalation in world petroleum price has stimulated the demand for biodiesel, which consequently expanded the use of vegetable oils. This paper investigates the long-run interdependence between major edible oil prices and examines the dynamic relationship between vegetable and crude oil prices. The data consists of 378 weekly observations extending from the first week of January in 1999 to the fourth week of March in 2006. We apply time-series analytical mechanisms and directed acyclic graphs to four major traded edible oils prices, including soybean, sunflower, rapeseed and palm oils, along with one weighted average world crude oil price. Tentative results suggest one long-run cointegration relationship among those five oil prices. Also, the edible oil markets are well linked in contemporaneous time with the palm oil market initiating the new information; however, soybean oil price dominates the edible oil markets in the long run. The influence of crude oil price on edible oil prices is not significant over the study period.
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