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Causality And Price Discovery: An Application Of Directed Acyclic Graphs

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  • Haigh, Michael S.
  • Bessler, David A.

Abstract

Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAG's) and Error Correction Models (ECM's) are employed to analyze questions of price discovery between spatially separated commodity markets and the transportation market linking them together. Results from our analysis suggest that these markets are highly interconnected but that it is the inland commodity market that is strongly influenced by both the transportation and commodity export markets in contemporaneous time. However, the commodity markets affect the volatility of the transportation market over longer horizons. Our results suggest that transportation rates are critical in the price discovery process lending support for the recent development of exchange traded barge rate futures contracts.

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  • Haigh, Michael S. & Bessler, David A., 2002. "Causality And Price Discovery: An Application Of Directed Acyclic Graphs," 2002 Conference, April 22-23, 2002, St. Louis, Missouri 19057, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ncrtwo:19057
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.19057
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