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Causality And Price Discovery: An Application Of Directed Acyclic Graphs

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  • Haigh, Michael S.
  • Bessler, David A.

Abstract

Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAG's) and Error Correction Models (ECM's) are employed to analyze questions of price discovery between spatially separated commodity markets and the transportation market linking them together. Results from our analysis suggest that these markets are highly interconnected but that it is the inland commodity market that is strongly influenced by both the transportation and commodity export markets in contemporaneous time. However, the commodity markets affect the volatility of the transportation market over longer horizons. Our results suggest that transportation rates are critical in the price discovery process lending support for the recent development of exchange traded barge rate futures contracts.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management in its series 2002 Conference, April 22-23, 2002, St. Louis, Missouri with number 19057.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:ags:ncrtwo:19057

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Web page: http://www.agebb.missouri.edu/ncrext/ncr134/

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Keywords: Demand and Price Analysis;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ayyagari, Meghana & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Maksimovic, Vojislav, 2006. "How important are financing constraints ? The role of finance in the business environment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3820, The World Bank.
  2. Alessio Moneta, 2008. "Graphical causal models and VARs: an empirical assessment of the real business cycles hypothesis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 275-300, September.
  3. Wang, Zijun, 2010. "Dynamics and causality in industry-specific volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1688-1699, July.
  4. Yang, Jian, 2005. "International bond market linkages: a structural VAR analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 39-54, January.
  5. Alessio Moneta & Peter Spirtes, 2005. "Graph-Based Search Procedure for Vector Autoregressive Models," LEM Papers Series 2005/14, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  6. Etienne, Xiaoli L. & Irwin, Scott H. & Garcia, Philip, 2013. "Dissecting Corn Price Movements with Directed Acyclic Graphs," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 151279, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  7. Wang, Zijun, 2012. "The causal structure of bond yields," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 93-102.
  8. Andrew Rettenmaier & Zijun Wang, 2013. "What determines health: a causal analysis using county level data," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer, vol. 14(5), pages 821-834, October.
  9. Power, Gabriel J. & Vedenov, Dmitry V., 2009. "The Price Shock Transmission during the 2007-2008 Commodity Bull Cycle: A Structural Vector Auto-Regression Approach to the "Chicken-or-Egg" Problem," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49538, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  10. Bizimana, Jean-Claude & Bessler, David A. & Angerer, Jay P., 2013. "Impact of Market Information System (E-Soko) on Beans Markets Integration: Case of Rwanda," 2013 Annual Meeting, February 2-5, 2013, Orlando, Florida 142734, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
  11. Franken, Jason R.V. & Cook, Michael L., 2013. "Impact of Board Structure and Process on Cooperative Performance," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 149420, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  12. Bryant, Henry L. & Bessler, David A. & Haigh, Michael S., 2003. "Causality In Futures Markets," Working Papers 28574, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
  13. Alessio Moneta, 2003. "Graphical Models for Structural Vector Autoregressions," LEM Papers Series 2003/07, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  14. Delphine Lautier & Franck Raynaud, 2012. "Systemic risk in energy derivative markets: a graph theory analysis," Post-Print halshs-00738201, HAL.
  15. Babula, Ronald A. & Bessler, David A. & Reeder, John & Somwaru, Agapi, 2004. "Modeling U.S. Soy-Based Markets with Directed Acyclic Graphs and Bernanke Structural VAR Methods: The Impacts of High Soy Meal and Soybean Prices," Journal of Food Distribution Research, Food Distribution Research Society, vol. 35(03), November.

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