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Hedging Multiple Price Uncertainty in International Grain Trade

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  • Michael S. Haigh
  • Matthew T. Holt

Abstract

Commodity and freight futures contracts are analyzed for their effectiveness in reducing uncertainty for international traders. A theoretical model is developed for a trader exposed to several types of risk. OLS hedge ratio estimation is compared to the SUR and the multivariate GARCH methodologies. Explicit modeling of the time-variation in hedge ratios via the multivariate GARCH methodology, using all derivatives, and taking into account dependencies between prices, results in reductions in risk, even after accounting for transaction costs. Results confirm that while the commodity futures contracts are important for hedging risk, freight futures are a useful mechanism for reducing risk. Copyright 2000, Oxford University Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its journal American Journal of Agricultural Economics.

Volume (Year): 82 (2000)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 881-896

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Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:82:y:2000:i:4:p:881-896

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Cited by:
  1. Lavee, Doron, 2010. "The effect of water supply uncertainty on farmers' choice of crop portfolio," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(11), pages 1847-1854, November.
  2. Michael S. Haigh & Nikos K. Nomikos & David A. Bessler, 2004. "Integration and Causality in International Freight Markets: Modeling with Error Correction and Directed Acyclic Graphs," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 71(1), pages 145-162, July.
  3. Michael S. Haigh & David A. Bessler, 2004. "Causality and Price Discovery: An Application of Directed Acyclic Graphs," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(4), pages 1099-1121, October.
  4. Yun, Won-Cheol & Jae Kim, Hyun, 2010. "Hedging strategy for crude oil trading and the factors influencing hedging effectiveness," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 2404-2408, May.
  5. Su, EnDer, 2013. "Stock index hedge using trend and volatility regime switch model considering hedging cost," MPRA Paper 49190, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Power, Gabriel J. & Vedenov, Dmitry V., 2008. "The Shape of the Optimal Hedge Ratio: Modeling Joint Spot-Futures Prices using an Empirical Copula-GARCH Model," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37609, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
  7. Qiang Zhang & Michael R. Reed & Sayed H. Saghaian, 2010. "The impact of multiple volatilities on import demand for U.S. commodities: the case of soybeans," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 202-219.
  8. Röthig, Andreas, 2008. "The Impact of Backwardation on Hedgers' Demand for Currency Futures Contracts: Theory versus Empirical Evidence," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 35698, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute of Economics (VWL).
  9. Jin, Hyun J. & Koo, Won W., 2006. "Offshore hedging strategy of Japan-based wheat traders under multiple sources of risk and hedging costs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 220-236, March.
  10. Haigh, Michael S. & Holt, Matthew T., 2002. "Combining Time-Varying And Dynamic Multi-Period Optimal Hedging Models," Working Papers 28593, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
  11. Udo Broll & Peter Welzel & Kit Pong Wong, 2013. "Price Risk and Risk Management in Agriculture," Contemporary Economics, University of Finance and Management in Warsaw, vol. 7(2), June.
  12. Bryant, Henry L. & Haigh, Michael S., 2003. "Comparing The Performances Of The Partial Equilibrium And Time-Series Approaches To Hedging," Working Papers 28580, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
  13. Tonsor, Glynn T., 2008. "Hedging in Presence of Market Access Risk," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37621, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
  14. Du, Wen, 2004. "International Market Integration Under Wto: Evidence In The Price Behaviors Of Chinese And Us Wheat Futures," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20115, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  15. Anton Bekkerman, 2011. "Time-varying hedge ratios in linked agricultural markets," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 71(2), pages 179-200, July.
  16. Yang, Jian & Awokuse, Titus O., 2002. "Asset Storability And Hedging Effectiveness In Commodity Futures Markets," Staff Papers 15826, University of Delaware, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
  17. Zhao, Jieyuan & Goodwin, Barry K., 2012. "Dynamic Cross-Hedge Ratios: An Application of Copula Models," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124610, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  18. Haigh, Michael S. & Bryant, Henry L., 2000. "Price And Price Risk Dynamics In Barge And Ocean Freight Markets And The Effects On Commodity Trading," 2000 Conference, April 17-18 2000, Chicago, Illinois 18934, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
  19. Haigh, Michael S. & Bryant, Henry L., 2001. "The effect of barge and ocean freight price volatility in international grain markets," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 41-58, June.
  20. Haigh, Michael S. & Holt, Matthew T., 2002. "Hedging Foreign Currency, Freight And Commodity Futures Portfolios: A Note," Working Papers 28573, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.

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