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Searching for the Causal Structure of a Vector Autoregression

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Author Info
Selva Demiralp
Kevin D. Hoover

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Abstract

We provide an accessible introduction to graph-theoretic methods for causal analysis. Building on the work of Swanson and Granger ("Journal of the American Statistical Association", Vol. 92, pp. 357-367, 1997), and generalizing to a larger class of models, we show how to apply graph-theoretic methods to selecting the causal order for a structural vector autoregression (SVAR). We evaluate the PC (causal search) algorithm in a Monte Carlo study. The PC algorithm uses tests of conditional independence to select among the possible causal orders - or at least to reduce the admissible causal orders to a narrow equivalence class. Our findings suggest that graph-theoretic methods may prove to be a useful tool in the analysis of SVARs. Copyright 2003 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1046/j.0305-9049.2003.00087.x
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Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Oxford in its journal Oxford Bulletin of Economics & Statistics.

Volume (Year): 65 (2003)
Issue (Month): s1 (December)
Pages: 745-767
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Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:65:y:2003:i:s1:p:745-767

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-16. [Downloadable!]
  3. Leamer, Edward E., 1985. "Vector autoregressions for causal inference?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 255-304, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Cooley, Thomas F. & Leroy, Stephen F., 1985. "Atheoretical macroeconometrics: A critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 283-308, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. David A. Bessler & Seongpyo Lee, 2002. "Money and prices: U.S. Data 1869-1914 (A study with directed graphs)," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 427-446. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Alessio Moneta, 2008. "Graphical causal models and VARs: an empirical assessment of the real business cycles hypothesis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 275-300, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Alessio Moneta, 2003. "Graphical Models for Structural Vector Autoregressions," LEM Papers Series 2003/07, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jorda, Oscar, 2007. "Inference for Impulse Responses," Working Papers 07-7, University of California at Davis, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Yu, Tun-Hsiang Edward & Bessler, David A. & Fuller, Stephen, 2006. "Cointegration and Causality Analysis of World Vegetable Oil and Crude Oil Prices," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21439, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  5. Park, Moonsoo & Jin, Yanhong H & Bessler, David A., 2008. "The Impacts of Animal Disease Crises on the Korean Meat Market," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6365, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
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  6. Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2003. "General-to-Specific Model Selection Procedures for Structural Vector Autoregressions," Economics Papers 2003-W15, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Jorda, Oscar, 2003. "Model-Free Impulse Responses," Working Papers 03-8, University of California at Davis, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 161-182, March. [Downloadable!]
  9. Alessio Moneta, 2005. "Causality in macroeconometrics: some considerations about reductionism and realism," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 433-453, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Alessio Moneta & Peter Spirtes, 2005. "Graph-Based Search Procedure for Vector Autoregressive Models," LEM Papers Series 2005/14, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
  11. Hoover, Kevin D., 2005. "Economic Theory and Causal Inference," Working Papers 06-4, University of California at Davis, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Jin Zhang & David A. Bessler & David J. Leatham, 2006. "Does consumer debt cause economic recession? Evidence using directed acyclic graphs," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(7), pages 401-407, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Jian Yang & Hui Guo & Zijun Wang, 2004. "International transmission of inflation among G-7 countries: a data-determined VAR analysis," Working Papers 2004-028, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Bryant, Henry L. & Bessler, David A. & Haigh, Michael S., 2003. "Causality In Futures Markets," Working Papers 28574, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics. [Downloadable!]
  15. Vitale, Jeffrey & Bessler, David, 2006. "The 2004 Niger Food Crisis: What Role Can Price Discovery Play in Famine Early Warning Systems?," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21316, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  16. Bryant, Henry L. & Bessler, David A. & Haigh, Michael S., 2006. "Disproving Causal Relationships Using Observational Data," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21166, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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