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Searching for the Causal Structure of a Vector Autoregression

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Author Info
Selva Demiralp
Kevin D. Hoover

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Abstract

We provide an accessible introduction to graph-theoretic methods for causal analysis. Building on the work of Swanson and Granger ("Journal of the American Statistical Association", Vol. 92, pp. 357-367, 1997), and generalizing to a larger class of models, we show how to apply graph-theoretic methods to selecting the causal order for a structural vector autoregression (SVAR). We evaluate the PC (causal search) algorithm in a Monte Carlo study. The PC algorithm uses tests of conditional independence to select among the possible causal orders - or at least to reduce the admissible causal orders to a narrow equivalence class. Our findings suggest that graph-theoretic methods may prove to be a useful tool in the analysis of SVARs. Copyright 2003 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1046/j.0305-9049.2003.00087.x
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Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Oxford in its journal Oxford Bulletin of Economics & Statistics.

Volume (Year): 65 (2003)
Issue (Month): s1 (December)
Pages: 745-767
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Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:65:y:2003:i:s1:p:745-767

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  1. Steven M. Sheffrin & Robert K. Triest, 1995. "A new approach to causality and economic growth," Working Papers 95-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
  2. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-16. [Downloadable!]
  4. Leamer, Edward E., 1985. "Vector autoregressions for causal inference?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 255-304, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Cooley, Thomas F. & Leroy, Stephen F., 1985. "Atheoretical macroeconometrics: A critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 283-308, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. David A. Bessler & Seongpyo Lee, 2002. "Money and prices: U.S. Data 1869-1914 (A study with directed graphs)," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 427-446. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Alessio Moneta, 2008. "Graphical causal models and VARs: an empirical assessment of the real business cycles hypothesis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 275-300, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Alessio Moneta, 2003. "Graphical Models for Structural Vector Autoregressions," LEM Papers Series 2003/07, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jorda, Oscar, 2007. "Inference for Impulse Responses," Working Papers 07-7, University of California at Davis, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Yu, Tun-Hsiang Edward & Bessler, David A. & Fuller, Stephen, 2006. "Cointegration and Causality Analysis of World Vegetable Oil and Crude Oil Prices," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21439, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  5. Park, Moonsoo & Jin, Yanhong H & Bessler, David A., 2008. "The Impacts of Animal Disease Crises on the Korean Meat Market," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6365, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
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  6. Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2003. "General-to-Specific Model Selection Procedures for Structural Vector Autoregressions," Economics Papers 2003-W15, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Jorda, Oscar, 2003. "Model-Free Impulse Responses," Working Papers 03-8, University of California at Davis, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 161-182, March. [Downloadable!]
  9. Alessio Moneta, 2005. "Causality in macroeconometrics: some considerations about reductionism and realism," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 433-453, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Alessio Moneta & Peter Spirtes, 2005. "Graph-Based Search Procedure for Vector Autoregressive Models," LEM Papers Series 2005/14, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
  11. Hoover, Kevin D., 2005. "Economic Theory and Causal Inference," Working Papers 06-4, University of California at Davis, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Jin Zhang & David A. Bessler & David J. Leatham, 2006. "Does consumer debt cause economic recession? Evidence using directed acyclic graphs," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(7), pages 401-407, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Jian Yang & Hui Guo & Zijun Wang, 2004. "International transmission of inflation among G-7 countries: a data-determined VAR analysis," Working Papers 2004-028, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Bryant, Henry L. & Bessler, David A. & Haigh, Michael S., 2003. "Causality In Futures Markets," Working Papers 28574, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics. [Downloadable!]
  15. Vitale, Jeffrey & Bessler, David, 2006. "The 2004 Niger Food Crisis: What Role Can Price Discovery Play in Famine Early Warning Systems?," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21316, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  16. Bryant, Henry L. & Bessler, David A. & Haigh, Michael S., 2006. "Disproving Causal Relationships Using Observational Data," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21166, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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